Thread

1. MadrasThorn · 1790684474 · focus · HN ↗

   Trump attacking the Netherlands means transatlanticism is really dead.

   I think this has a lot to do with how the case against Putin was built and Trump used his influence to disrupt it.

   1. rapsey · 1790686721 · focus · HN ↗

      The EU is entirely subjugated to the US. No energy independence, militaries falling apart and out of date, no tech development or investment.

      1. mittensc · 1790687062 · focus · HN ↗

         Maybe that's wrong?

         The US can't even win a war in the middle east without NATO

         What is the US going to do when China starts making their own moves?

         1. rapsey · 1790687333 · focus · HN ↗

            Outside the US, NATO countries have very little power projection capabilities. A bit of france, a bit of UK and then nothing.

            1. mittensc · 1790687937 · focus · HN ↗

               How's that power projection working in Iran/Yemen?

               Would NATO change the equation?

               1. bluGill · 1790690855 · focus · HN ↗

                  The US has chosen not to project all the power they can. That is send soldiers - likely some to die. However the US has the ability to send them if they want, and could supply them if they did - nobody else has anywhere near that ability ready today.

                  1. RobotToaster · 1790693766 · focus · HN ↗

                     Do you really think the USA has enough troops to take and occupy Iran without instituting a draft?

                     1. bluGill · 1790694613 · focus · HN ↗

                        What does that have to do with anything? The need for a draft is one of several reasons why it is unlikely the US will escalate more. However that is a card the US could play quickly, and combined with the existing military would be enough. (Vietnam could have been won as well, but the US made political choices to not do what it takes)

                        1. mittensc · 1790695124 · focus · HN ↗

                           That's a lot of winning... having to introduce a draft...

                           How well do you think a draft is going to go? forced on an armed populace that might not want to die in iran?

                  2. mittensc · 1790693844 · focus · HN ↗

                     So power projection isn't working out as planned.

                     Could doesn't reopen hormuz.

                     1. bluGill · 1790694510 · focus · HN ↗

                        Hormuz is mostly open last I checked. Iran is shouting, but ships are getting through again.

                        Though the point remains, the US has made the choice to not escalate farther, but there is plenty of power left behind that could be used.

                        1. mittensc · 1790694953 · focus · HN ↗

                           [dead]

                        2. jst1fthsdys · 1790708559 · focus · HN ↗

                           >Hormuz is mostly open last I checked. Iran is shouting, but ships are getting through again.

                           Hormuz isn't open. Any traffic going through is a small fraction compared to before the war. The US can't even operate close to the Iranian shore for fear of anti ship missiles.

                           > the US has made the choice to not escalate farther,

                           They can't escalate further or they would. They can't even hold their bases or protect the countries they are supposed to. What power, short of a nuke, are they holding back on?

                           1. bluGill · 1790717542 · focus · HN ↗

                              > US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated on September 27 that between 15 and 22 million barrels of oil currently pass through the strait daily, compared to the 20 million barrels of oil that passed through the strait daily before the war.

                              > The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Navy claimed that Iran has targeted 19 vessels that have attempted to transit the strait since September 25, though Iranian media provided no evidence to substantiate these claims.

                              From <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;understandingwar.org&#x2F;research&#x2F;middle-east&#x2F;iran-update-september-27-2026&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;understandingwar.org&#x2F;research&#x2F;middle-east&#x2F;iran-updat.... Now I realize that both Scott Bessent and the ISW are biased sources. However they still are painting a picture of the strait mostly reopened.

                              1. jst1fthsdys · 1790718441 · focus · HN ↗

                                 Bessent is a liar and an idiot. May as well quote Trump tweets. Iran still being able to attack ships at will in the straight should further dispel any illusion it is open.

                                 There are independent trackers which all show transit levels around 1-5% of what it was prewar. Even with some shadow fleet tankers going, it still isn&#x27;t getting anywhere close to those levels.

                  3. Danox · 1790694886 · focus · HN ↗

                     Half a million soldiers and 57,000 dead in Vietnam did not win the war, when you have an adversary who is willing to fight and has a supply line. The same applied to Afghanistan and Korea.

                     Russia is currently learning that lesson again. After Afghanistan, in the Ukraine, for the US to have any chance of winning in Iran the US needs at least half a million people on the ground. With a trillion dollar bankroll?

                     The United States is reaching the end. When it comes to the amount of money needed, let alone the human cost, and to top it off, while we’re slogging around in the sand in Iran at every level, we will be getting weaker in relationship to China and the world.

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