Thread

In Ukraine, distributed renewables foil Russia's assaults

169 points · 195 comments · JumpCrisscross

atoav · 1791104660 · focus · HN ↗
If every building and other piece of infrastructure essentially powers itself, that means to disable a bunch of targets you now can't just disable a central substation that feeds them, you have to disable the targets themselves, and depending on the nature of the targets that may no longer be economical.
It also no longer makes sense to attack the connecting lines between them as well.
1. gnull · 1791106665 · focus · HN ↗
  Disabling them is a means to deal economic damage, not an end-goal in itself.
  People built centralized grids because it's cheaper to build and service when the equipment is concentrated in one place. The economy of scale kicks in.
  If you move to decentralized so there's fewer outages, but now you're paying extra to maintain it, your solution is not as good as it used to be, that's economic damage right there.
  And your enemy probably will also stop targeting the small decentralized grid elements, so they're not spending bucks on missiles. They can use more of them to hit other parts of your economy that are still centralized.
  Estimating the net impact of this change is bigger than the article suggests.
  1. glenstein · 1791107505 · focus · HN ↗
    What does the distinction between economic damage and not being an end goal in itself have to do with anything? Either way it's a live goal being pursued and decentralizing will mitigate Russia's ability to inflict pain.
    You're right that centralized grids are cheaper (as long as the utilities maintaining them are good faith actors) and that switching to decentralized solutions brings new maintenance costs. But this is a war, the choice isn't been idealized central distribution and costs of decentralization, it's between the latter and a grid under siege by missiles. Relying on a grid that's being struck by missiles with no backup plan isn't economical either.
    Also in your other comment you were claiming PV being outside was "much easier to hit" but now you are saying those systems probably won't be targeted.
    gnull · 1791109870 · focus · HN ↗
    > mitigate Russia's ability to inflict pain
    The crux of the distinction I'm making is right there. Russia is not doing some ephemeral "inflict pain", it's pursuing a clear objective of draining Ukraine's budget.
    The way I'd do it if I was in Kremlin is something close to make up a list of targets, rank them by (Ukraine's cost to maintain)/(Russia's cost of missiles), pick the top 3-5 and hit them. Also continuously update the cost estimates and reevaluate those 3-5 targets.
    In this vocabulary, Ukraine moving to decentralized is a cost in itself, so if it does pay that cost to move "energy grid" item down Russia's list, Russia can celebrate it and move on to the next target. If this happens, Ukraine will have paid the cost of moving to decentralized, and will be continuously paying a penalty for it, while Russia's coat of incurring that on Ukraine goes to zero (since the new missiles are hitting different targets).
    And critically, if we assume moving to decentralized will make it pointless for Russia to hit the grid, deciding how much will it help requires knowing what target they will aim those newly freed missiles at, and how much cost that is going to incur.
    > you were claiming PV being outside was "much easier to hit" but now you are saying those systems probably won't be targeted.
    These are all hypotheticals, I assumed we're on the same page about it. We don't really know here in this forum what's going to work. Considering two contradicting hypotheticals in different threads is alright.
    My comments are not about what is true, what's going to actually happen on the ground. They're about how one should go about arguing whatever they're arguing for, what reservations they're missing, and what assumptions they made they're not aware of.
    glenstein · 1791110891 · focus · HN ↗
    >The crux of the distinction I'm making is right there. Russia is not doing some ephemeral "inflict pain", it's pursuing a clear objective of draining Ukraine's budget.
    Again there's an integral relation between those two things. Insofar as that distinction reinforces any point, it would seem to be the decentralization is a cost in and of itself and that Russia would consider that objective achieved once the cost of decentralization was incurred. As you point out there wouldn't be motivation to attack individual PV systems, yet you keep insisting there's a vulnerability to attack even though the whole point of your inflict pain/drain budget distinction is that such an attack wouldn't have a motivation.
    >These are all hypotheticals
    Why does them being hypothetical make having contradictory positions on them more defensible? One thing hypotheticals test is whether the totality of your explanations hang together without contradicting each other. And these aren't even distinct hypotheticals that are isolated from each other. They're contemplating basically the same scenario.
    If talking about Russia not attacking decentralized system because being decentralized was the inflicted cost is the goal, then individual residential PVs aren't a really target after all. If they are a target, then Russia either wasn't satisfied that the switch inflicted damage that met a strategic goal, or you were wrong that they're distinguishing between inflicting pain and meeting some higher level strategic objective. I don't see that the hypotheticals are actually quarantined off from each other, they're about the same thing, so the contradiction can't be explained away by insisting each part of the contradiction was quarantined off from each other in separate hypotheticals.
    gnull · 1791113626 · focus · HN ↗
    A hypothetical is not a position. They are a logical/rhetorical tool that let's you see what are the implications of X being true without saying that X is true. The point of a hypothetical is seeing where something leads without making that something your position.
    One reason to do hypotheticals is to see if X being true leads to any valuable, surprising implications. So that after that you can go back to talking about whether X is true, this time knowing why you need to know it (or skip talking about it if it doesn't lead anywhere interesting).
    Making two hypothetical that contradict each other is extremely useful and common way to use them. One typical example is case matching. If you show that some Y holds under the assumption that X is true, then you show that Y also holds under the assumption that X is not true; this allows you to conclude that Y is true, no matter whether X is true.
    In don't know if Ukraine moving to decentralized will make attacks on its grid useless. In two differs branches here I consider what happens if it does and what happens if it doesn't. In response to whatever the other commenters seem to believe in. When someone states X as their position, sometimes I prefer to see what are the implications of it, and if any are interesting come back to talking about whether their position is true. If no implications are surprising, I won't even approach the costlier task of trying to understand if the commenters position is true.
    You seemed to believe that decentralizing will make grid attacks not viable, and from there try to go to saying decentralization helps. My point to you was that there's a few variables (decentralization penalty, Russia's next best target after grid) that must be taken into account if you were to conduct an argument like that. I'm saying that without stating (or even having) a position on whether decentralization will stop grid attcks.
    In the other thread the discussion was about whether grid attcks will stop. And my point was that I don't find it obvious that they won't.
    Strictly speaking, none of this was stating my position. There's so much more to logic and rhetorics than stating positions and defending them.
    thelastgallon · 1791116646 · focus · HN ↗
    In other words, you don't have the foggiest idea what you are talking about. Are you are a senior 'leader' in a big corp?
    gnull · 1791122182 · focus · HN ↗
    Whoa, you dropped the quality of this discussion so low so quickly there.
    Accepted. To your question: "in other words", I'm a senior leader of your mom's libido.
    tomhow · 1791186210 · focus · HN ↗
    Please don't post vile dreck like this on HN. The guidelines make it clear we're trying for something better here. <a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html">https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
    tomhow · 1791186137 · focus · HN ↗
    Be kind. Don't be snarky. Converse curiously; don't cross-examine. Edit out swipes.
    Comments should get more thoughtful and substantive, not less, as a topic gets more divisive.
    When disagreeing, please reply to the argument instead of calling names. "That is idiotic; 1 + 1 is 2, not 3" can be shortened to "1 + 1 is 2, not 3."
    Please don't fulminate. Please don't sneer...
    <a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html">https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
    neoromantique · 1791112216 · focus · HN ↗
    >Russia is not doing some ephemeral "inflict pain"
    Oh but it is, there is no other explanation why civilian heating facilities are being targeted during winter otherwise, they don't cost much to fix, and actually cost a lot to target, but they do bring a lot of pain to the civilian population (winters in Ukraine are brutal).
    And as if it wasn't obvious enough, the anti-ukrainian government bot campaigns that always coincide with the attacks make it obvious beyond belief.
    drysine · 1791117724 · focus · HN ↗
    >why civilian heating facilities are being targeted during winter
    Because these are cogeneration[0] facilities - they generate both electricity and heat.
    [0] <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cogeneration" rel="nofollow">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cogeneration
    neoromantique · 1791118572 · focus · HN ↗
    Sure, but they generate civilian electricity, military has generators, and had them for years, so it just doubles the war crime.
    drysine · 1791120834 · focus · HN ↗
    >civilian electricity
    Luckily, NATO spokesman answered that question 27 years ago.
    Press conference by Mr Jamie Shea, NATO Spokesman, 25 May 1999 [0]
    Question (Norwegian News Agency): I am sorry Jamie but if you say that the Army has a lot of back-up generators, why are you depriving 70% of the country of not only electricity, but also water supply, if he has so much back-up electricity that he can use because you say you are only targeting military targets?
    Jamie Shea : Yes, I'm afraid electricity also drives command and control systems. If President Milosevic really wants all of his population to have water and electricity all he has to do is accept NATO's five conditions and we will stop this campaign. But as long as he doesn't do so we will continue to attack those targets which provide the electricity for his armed forces.
    [0] <a href="https://www.nato.int/en/news-and-events/events/transcripts/1999/05/25/press-conference" rel="nofollow">https://www.nato.int/en/news-and-events/events/transcripts/1...
    neoromantique · 1791124845 · focus · HN ↗
    Checked out your other comments, wish I would've done so before engaging.
    Bye.
    gnull · 1791127077 · focus · HN ↗
    Yeah, the C++ comments this gentleman posts ate rather repelling.
    neoromantique · 1791127816 · focus · HN ↗
    "Western and Ukrainian propaganda wants you to believe so you keep voting for the politicians that prop the regime in Kiev with your tax money"
    I'd rather not discuss it with people who can't even spell Kyiv correctly, I'm good.
    EDIT: Read your comments, two for two, damn.
    gnull · 1791140915 · focus · HN ↗
    [dead]
    neoromantique · 1791142036 · focus · HN ↗
    >I see nothing controversial in the quote you give
    Yes, I know, I read your comment history. Bye.
    codedokode · 1791121377 · focus · HN ↗
    > they don't cost much to fix
    I think power plants are expensive and not cheap to fix.
    neoromantique · 1791124753 · focus · HN ↗
    Not compared to how much the rockets that are used to hit them cost.
    derriz · 1791115704 · focus · HN ↗
    > Russia is not doing some ephemeral "inflict pain", it's pursuing a clear objective of draining Ukraine's budget.
    This is not true - they’ve regularly targeted and hit kindergartens, supermarkets, gas stations, town squares/markets, residential buildings, etc. None of these targets are “budget draining” but instead are intended to terrify and hurt civilians. Russia isn’t calculating or being strategic at the level you suggest - instead its actions are often simply cruel, inhumane and vindictive even at the cost of its own strategic interests.
    drysine · 1791117420 · focus · HN ↗
    > intended to terrify and hurt civilians
    Or it's what Western and Ukrainian propaganda wants you to believe so you keep voting for the politicians that prop the regime in Kiev with your tax money.
    derriz · 1791119576 · focus · HN ↗
    These attacks have been too well documented for your "propaganda" attack to appeal to anyone but the brainwashed or those acting in bad faith. Outside of Western media, multiple UN reports have presented direct photographic and have found physical evidence for these attacks.
    <a href="https://ukraine.ohchr.org/en/Sustained-large-scale-attacks-by-Russian-armed-forces-kill-and-injure-civilians-across-Ukraine-in-April" rel="nofollow">https://ukraine.ohchr.org/en/Sustained-large-scale-attacks-b... - documents and presents the irrefutable evidence for, among other attacks, the double ballistic missile strike on the historic centre of Sumy on Palm Sunday. The second exploded above a public area, killing at least 31 civilians and injuring 80. The UN describes civilians traveling to church, going to the market, working at a coffee stand, etc.
    <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/sites/default/files/documents/hrbodies/hrcouncil/coiukraine/A-78-540-En.pdf" rel="nofollow">https://www.ohchr.org/sites/default/files/documents/hrbodies... - this is a formal UN commission report on a series of Russian attacks in Kherson which struck a number of supermarkets, a gas station, railway station and residential buildings.
    <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/sites/default/files/documents/hrbodies/hrcouncil/coiukraine/A-78-540-En.pdf" rel="nofollow">https://www.ohchr.org/sites/default/files/documents/hrbodies... - another UN Commission report that found that a Russian Kh-101 cruise missile struck a civilian apartment building, killing 24 civilians. There was no military or economic target there and so the UN concluded that Russian forces had conducted an indiscriminate attack on a residential building
    <a href="https://ukraine.ohchr.org/en/Russian-attack-strikes-shopping-centre-full-of-civilians-UN-human-rights-monitors" rel="nofollow">https://ukraine.ohchr.org/en/Russian-attack-strikes-shopping... - found that a Russian long-range drone struck an operational shopping centre full of civilians, then another drone struck it about 30 minutes later. At least 16 civilians were killed and 128 injured. Investigators found no military presence, activity or equipment at the site.
    <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bucha_massacre" rel="nofollow">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bucha_massacre - the Bucha massacre of civilians
    Or read any of the Amnesty International reports (who have also been critical of some of Ukraine's actions so can hardly be accused of purveying Ukrainian propaganda), such as:
    <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/03/ukraine-beleaguered-town-of-izium-at-breaking-point-after-constant-attack-from-russian-forces-new-testimony" rel="nofollow">https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/03/ukraine-belea... - attacks on residential houses, schools, kindergartens, medical facilities and food stores in Izium
    <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2024/07/ukraine-major-damage-to-childrens-hospital-by-direct-russian-missile-hit-dozens-killed-across-the-country/" rel="nofollow">https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2024/07/ukraine-major... - attack on Ohmatdyt children's hospital in Kyiv
    <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/documents/eur50/7508/2023/en/" rel="nofollow">https://www.amnesty.org/en/documents/eur50/7508/2023/en/ - a long list of attacks on childrens' schools
    I could go on and on with such reports but I suspect, from the tone and implication of your response, I'm not going to change your mind with evidence.
    drysine · 1791121055 · focus · HN ↗
    [dead]
    gnull · 1791126810 · focus · HN ↗
    [dead]
    wiseowise · 1791120604 · focus · HN ↗
    Western propaganda planting dead bodies and destroying residential buildings.
    If 1% of my tax contributions helps people suffering from Russian terror, that’s money well-spent.
    [deleted] · 1791120971 · focus · HN ↗
    [deleted]
    codedokode · 1791121165 · focus · HN ↗
    > instead its actions are often simply cruel, inhumane and vindictive
    Every war is cruel and inhumane, so why single out Russia here?
    derriz · 1791124967 · focus · HN ↗
    Because I was responding directly (I even quoted the line) to the claim that Russian’s actions could be understood as being part of a “clear objective of draining Ukraine's budget”.
    Your attempt to deflect is very odd. We’re discussing an aspect of Russia’s behavior and strategy with respect to the invasion of Ukraine. If you want me to comment on the behavior of a different belligerent in a different conflict then feel free to start such a discussion concerning that conflict - then I may (or may not) respond to claims about the behavior of some country that isn’t Russia.
    gnull · 1791126466 · focus · HN ↗
    I agree that they hit civilian targets, the evidence is there. How do you know they targeted them? Missiles sometimes can miss or or be shot down by air defenses, then fall and explode.
    It's been broken down many times with a lot of examples from history: harassing civilians only mobilizes them. So Russia must be not only cruels but also stupid if you want to argue that they're targeting civilians.
    The death toll among civilians also does not look like they're being targeted, more like collateral damage. Typically when you see a headline like "another bloodthirsty attack of Russian orcs of Ukraine's civilians", you open the post to see that there's 4 dead + 15 injured. Like if they had a goal of killing civilians, they wouldn't do it by hundreds.
    It's cheap to demonize and dismiss the side you don't like, picture them as cruel, stypid, evil. And from there, creatively explain everything they do with these qualities. It seldom helps you understand reality though.
    So it could be that your case is special, you're not just being lazy and racist in building your worldview, but people you don't like are actually unreasonably cruel, evil and also stypid. Or maybe not, and your explanation is lazy and of poor quality. Guess which one is more likely.
    derriz · 1791131793 · focus · HN ↗
    > How do you know they targeted them?
    I'm not sure how those killed in Bucha were _not_ targeted?
    I'm also not sure how the execution of POWs could be accidental (with the evidence used in various reports provided by videos taken by Russians themselves) or the documented systematic torture (HRW report: <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2025/12/11/russias-systematic-torture-of-ukrainian-pows" rel="nofollow">https://www.hrw.org/news/2025/12/11/russias-systematic-tortu...)
    Or the kidnap of children (documented by UN) or the findings of the UN human rights commission:
    > The Commission found that Russian authorities committed a wide range of war crimes, and the corresponding human rights violations, including willful killings, attacks on civilians, unlawful confinement, torture, rape and other sexual violence, as well as unlawful transfers and deportations of children.
    Or the findings of HRW (Human Rights Watch) of indiscriminate and disproportionate attacks on populated areas, including homes, hospitals and schools.
    Reading about this stuff - by credible sources like the UNHRC, Amnesty International, HRW, endless media and independent journalists' - and forming an opinion does not make me "lazy and racist".
    Sometimes, one side are simply the bad guys and in this particular case, it's the Russian regime.
    mopsi · 1791135130 · focus · HN ↗
    > How do you know they targeted them?
    Double-tap attacks are a tell-tale sign of this. If half an hour later another missile or a drone "accidentally" hits exactly the same spot to kill rescue workers, there's not much mystery left.
    > The death toll among civilians also does not look like they're being targeted, more like collateral damage. Typically when you see a headline like "another bloodthirsty attack of Russian orcs of Ukraine's civilians", you open the post to see that there's 4 dead + 15 injured. Like if they had a goal of killing civilians, they wouldn't do it by hundreds.
    Modern drones and missiles are rather ineffective for killing lots of people. Most of them get shot down, and those that reach their targets have relatively small warheads. Nothing compared to old-school area bombing. A typical major air raid (500-800 planes) in WWII delivered 2000-4000 tons of bombs to a single city. A typical 200-drone strike in 2026 delivers potentially no more than 10 tons spread across the country, probably even less if we account for decoys. The largest strikes (drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles combined) had about 40 ton payload, of which 10 tons reached the intended target. In WWII terms, that's about 3 planes' worth of bombs.
    gnull · 1791140614 · focus · HN ↗
    Good points, didn't know that.
  2. atoav · 1791111219 · focus · HN ↗
    Yes of course, but that is the point. Why do you hit substations when you could permanently destroy the individual targets of that outage?
    You do it because targeting the individual sites is not economical. If every 1000 units of currency of range you inflict on your opponent costs you 2000 units of currency, you are basically just hurting yourself.
    You target the substation because with one hit you can deny the service on many smaller targets, something which may not be economical if you targeted them one by one.
    That means there are targets that would have been attractive targets in a central system, that are no longer attractive in a decentralized one.
    Generally centralized systems can be run more efficiently, however it depends since electric transmission is not lossless and the construction/upkeep of the infrastructure is not free. That means the geography of the place plays a huge role. The more spread out the individual sites are, the more a decentralized system makes sense.
    Renewable upkeep is a question of the requirements. I know mountain huts in high alpine areas that run on solar for the past two decades and have had basically zero maintenance cost, if you don't count the occasional shoveling of snow. Batteries of course need to be swapped out as well, if you have them, but they can also last a while. But the cost of running centralized power to a single high alpine hut is incomparably higher (if it wasn't, that is what would be there).
    gnull · 1791114459 · focus · HN ↗
    Even the big targets nowadays take hundreds of drones launched to destroy, because of air defense. Air defense seems like one of those thigs that's easier to concentrate around a select number of key sites. You won't put a Patriot next to each residential building, but you can put some next to a big power plant.
    And the drones today are made with large targets in mind, carrying one bigger payload of explosive. I wonder how they can change if the goal would be to target stacks of fragile solar panelts with best cost efficiency. I've seen on the news yesterday that Russia started targeting bridges more because that have some new payload that's more destructive to them than just a big lump of explosive.
    I don't know what's actually true here, just some ideas on what else need to be taken into account.
  3. astine · 1791111748 · focus · HN ↗
    > Disabling them is a means to deal economic damage, not an end-goal in itself.
    Russia's goal in attacking Ukraine's energy sector is to make the country ungovernable. They attack the energy sector in winter because they know that causes suffering and hope that will cause the populace to turn against their government or at least against the war. It's not just a matter of causing economic damage, turning off the heat is a means to an end in ending the war in their favor.
    bluGill · 1791114720 · focus · HN ↗
    That is a stated goal but it's repeatedly happened through history that someone has attempted to do that same thing and what it really did was make the population even more eager to go to war to defeat you.
    codedokode · 1791120883 · focus · HN ↗
    But isn't West getting tired of war? For example, in Germany, an "Alternative for Germany" is winning which calls for making a deal with Russia to get the cheap energy and stop supporting the war. West thought that Russian economy would crumble under sanctions, but instead it seems that Western economies are not doing great, and the West has depleted its ammunition reserves due to the war in the Middle East.
    bluGill · 1791121255 · focus · HN ↗
    Ukraine is the one being attacked here, not Germany. I am not sure what your point is. Certainly, Europe in general is tired of the war. Western Europe has been against war in general for a long time. That's not necessarily a sign that they're going to stop supporting Ukraine. Different countries, of course, will do different things, but overall, signs are, while Europe is tired of war and wants it to end, Europe is not willing to end it on Russia's terms. We will see countries have been flowed their support for Ukraine, but I would say overall all signs are Europe is still going to continue supporting Ukraine in the war for the foreseeable future. Only time will tell, but that's my current read of the situation.
    Paradigma11 · 1791189013 · focus · HN ↗
    Most polls in the EU show around 60% support for military assistance to Ukraine. People are fed up with many things and opposition parties are more likely to be pro Russian to get that vote. If anything the last years have shown Russia's true face and I don't think there is much appetite for renewing those business deals which have been shown to be such a dangerous dependency.

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