Thread

Astronomer watches Starlink satellites sinking to build a 'planetary barometer'

67 points · 19 comments · whh

pclowes · 1790369708 · focus · HN ↗
Any solid citations for "and has pushed Low Earth Orbit to the brink of the Kessler Syndrome."?
I would be honestly intrigued but wary of just the usual Elon bad/good so all things he does bad/good narratives.
If we are on the brink of Kessler Syndrome in LEO I would expect market pricing to reflect that.
1. smallerize · 1790370161 · focus · HN ↗
  <a href="https://arstechnica.com/space/2026/09/there-are-now-17000-satellites-in-orbit-and-growing-should-we-be-concerned/" rel="nofollow">https://arstechnica.com/space/2026/09/there-are-now-17000-sa... "It does indeed start to look pretty dicey by mid-century."
  The report itself <a href="https://www.esa.int/Space_Safety/Space_Debris/ESA_Space_Environment_Report_2026" rel="nofollow">https://www.esa.int/Space_Safety/Space_Debris/ESA_Space_Envi...
  About pricing: <a href="https://www.satellitetoday.com/launch/2026/09/17/the-era-of-cheap-price-per-kilo-launch-is-over-launchers-say/" rel="nofollow">https://www.satellitetoday.com/launch/2026/09/17/the-era-of-...
  1. brandonagr2 · 1790370987 · focus · HN ↗
    If the report is predicting 100 years in the future, are we really "to the brink" now? Not to mention the decay time of these LEO is in months, hardly a kessler syndrome scenario.
    smallerize · 1790371583 · focus · HN ↗
    The report says we will be in trouble in 10-20 years, not 100. Look under "collisions causing collisions". Debris from previous collisions increases the risk of future collisions.
    drivingmenuts · 1790392091 · focus · HN ↗
    It probably doesn't matter. Global warming has proven that we are incapable of doing the necessary things to slow or stop the human-caused decaying of our planet. I'm starting to think we deserve what we're gonna get.
  2. schiffern · 1790422409 · focus · HN ↗
    Phillips said "Starlink has pushed LEO to the brink of Kessler syndrome."[0]
    This is an ESA collision rate prediction, based on... something. It has no known connection to Starlink. Are the assumptions in the ESA paper representative of Starlink (altitude, disposal, collision avoidance system, etc)? Who knows!
    [0] <a href="https://www.spaceweather.com/starlink/starlink_drag_explainer.html" rel="nofollow">https://www.spaceweather.com/starlink/starlink_drag_explaine...
2. dzhiurgis · 1790372014 · focus · HN ↗
  Same. Somehow first 50% of mass to orbit was woke science and next 50% is fascist oppression.
3. ck2 · 1790372502 · focus · HN ↗
  almost positive Kessler LEO will be triggered by Russia taking out a cluster by the end of the decade
  * <a href="https://satellitemap.space" rel="nofollow">https://satellitemap.space
  * <a href="https://platform.leolabs.space/visualization" rel="nofollow">https://platform.leolabs.space/visualization
4. embedding-shape · 1790372715 · focus · HN ↗
  > If we are on the brink of Kessler Syndrome in LEO I would expect market pricing to reflect that.
  Wouldn't the market pricing only reflect this after that fact? Up until it happens and no one knows any better, business will continue as usual because otherwise numbers don't go up. Like any past financial crisis, things look fine until they don't.

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