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Astronomer watches Starlink satellites sinking to build a 'planetary barometer'

67 points · 19 comments · whh

  1. pclowes · · focus · HN ↗
    Any solid citations for "and has pushed Low Earth Orbit to the brink of the Kessler Syndrome."?

    I would be honestly intrigued but wary of just the usual Elon bad/good so all things he does bad/good narratives.

    If we are on the brink of Kessler Syndrome in LEO I would expect market pricing to reflect that.

    1. smallerize · · focus · HN ↗
      <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;arstechnica.com&#x2F;space&#x2F;2026&#x2F;09&#x2F;there-are-now-17000-satellites-in-orbit-and-growing-should-we-be-concerned&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;arstechnica.com&#x2F;space&#x2F;2026&#x2F;09&#x2F;there-are-now-17000-sa... &quot;It does indeed start to look pretty dicey by mid-century.&quot;

      The report itself <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.esa.int&#x2F;Space_Safety&#x2F;Space_Debris&#x2F;ESA_Space_Environment_Report_2026" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.esa.int&#x2F;Space_Safety&#x2F;Space_Debris&#x2F;ESA_Space_Envi...

      About pricing: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.satellitetoday.com&#x2F;launch&#x2F;2026&#x2F;09&#x2F;17&#x2F;the-era-of-cheap-price-per-kilo-launch-is-over-launchers-say&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.satellitetoday.com&#x2F;launch&#x2F;2026&#x2F;09&#x2F;17&#x2F;the-era-of-...

      1. brandonagr2 · · focus · HN ↗
        If the report is predicting 100 years in the future, are we really &quot;to the brink&quot; now? Not to mention the decay time of these LEO is in months, hardly a kessler syndrome scenario.
        1. smallerize · · focus · HN ↗
          The report says we will be in trouble in 10-20 years, not 100. Look under &quot;collisions causing collisions&quot;. Debris from previous collisions increases the risk of future collisions.
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