Thread

1. pclowes · 1790369708 · focus · HN ↗

   Any solid citations for "and has pushed Low Earth Orbit to the brink of the Kessler Syndrome."?

   I would be honestly intrigued but wary of just the usual Elon bad/good so all things he does bad/good narratives.

   If we are on the brink of Kessler Syndrome in LEO I would expect market pricing to reflect that.

   1. smallerize · 1790370161 · focus · HN ↗

      <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;arstechnica.com&#x2F;space&#x2F;2026&#x2F;09&#x2F;there-are-now-17000-satellites-in-orbit-and-growing-should-we-be-concerned&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;arstechnica.com&#x2F;space&#x2F;2026&#x2F;09&#x2F;there-are-now-17000-sa... &quot;It does indeed start to look pretty dicey by mid-century.&quot;

      The report itself <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.esa.int&#x2F;Space_Safety&#x2F;Space_Debris&#x2F;ESA_Space_Environment_Report_2026" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.esa.int&#x2F;Space_Safety&#x2F;Space_Debris&#x2F;ESA_Space_Envi...

      About pricing: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.satellitetoday.com&#x2F;launch&#x2F;2026&#x2F;09&#x2F;17&#x2F;the-era-of-cheap-price-per-kilo-launch-is-over-launchers-say&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.satellitetoday.com&#x2F;launch&#x2F;2026&#x2F;09&#x2F;17&#x2F;the-era-of-...

      1. schiffern · 1790422409 · focus · HN ↗

         Phillips said &quot;Starlink has pushed LEO to the brink of Kessler syndrome.&quot;[0]

         This is an ESA collision rate prediction, based on... something. It has no known connection to Starlink. Are the assumptions in the ESA paper representative of Starlink (altitude, disposal, collision avoidance system, etc)? Who knows!

         [0] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.spaceweather.com&#x2F;starlink&#x2F;starlink_drag_explainer.html" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.spaceweather.com&#x2F;starlink&#x2F;starlink_drag_explaine...

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