Thread

1. Shank · 1790247119 · focus · HN ↗

   It feels like it’s very, very risky territory for these activities to be “occurring” in a NATO country. I’m sure everyone else is thinking the same thing, but at what point does Article 5 get invoked?

   1. Kinrany · 1790247495 · focus · HN ↗

      Undermining article 5 is the goal, so NATO needs to figure out how to invoke it gradually.

      One thought is to pretend to not know that it's Russia, and invoke it against an "unidentified adversary".

      1. petcat · 1790249634 · focus · HN ↗

         Nobody actually wants to invoke Article 5. The European countries talk a lot, but they don't actually want to do anything serious.

         Macron famously said that he would "have to send troops to Odesa" and yet 3 years later there are still no French troops in Ukraine and Russia has captured even more territory and is now actively bombarding Kyiv.

         The reality is that, despite their public statements and posture, every leader in the EU secretly hopes USA can broker a peace deal and this all just kinda goes away.

         1. SecretDreams · 1790250388 · focus · HN ↗

            > The reality is that, despite their public statements and posture, every leader in the EU secretly hopes USA can broker a peace deal and this all just kinda goes away.

            This might've been the reality three years ago. A lot has changed in the US in the last three years.

            Nobody wants to invoke article 5, I do agree. But I think they might understand that it's more likely that A5 is invoked than the US brokers a peace to with anybody. They're the department of war now.

            1. someonebaggy · 1790260787 · focus · HN ↗

               It's not the reality of the USA but it's still the reality of EU wishes.

               1. munksbeer · 1790271395 · focus · HN ↗

                  You're saying this as if it is some kind of gotcha?

                  Don't you hope, not so secretly, that a peace deal can be brokered and we don't have to send our young men to war? I know I do, and I hope most people do. It would be weird if you don't.

                  The reality is, despite Trump being a gigantic arsehole, the US is still, by a huge margin, the worlds premier military. Realistically, they have the best chance of exerting pressure for a peace deal. I just wish Trump would live up to his promises for once.

         2. baal80spam · 1790258656 · focus · HN ↗

            > The reality is that, despite their public statements and posture, every leader in the EU secretly hopes USA can broker a peace deal and this all just kinda goes away.

            100% agree.

         3. cestith · 1790263526 · focus · HN ↗

            Ukraine is not yet a NATO member. Poland is.
         4. munksbeer · 1790271423 · focus · HN ↗

            You're saying this as if it is some kind of gotcha? Don't you hope, not so secretly, that a peace deal can be brokered and we don't have to send our young men to war? I know I do, and I hope most people do. It would be weird if you don't.

            The reality is, despite Trump being a gigantic arsehole, the US is still, by a huge margin, the worlds premier military. Realistically, they have the best chance of exerting pressure for a peace deal. I just wish Trump would live up to his promises for once.

            1. donkey_brains · 1790309081 · focus · HN ↗

               And I wish I was flying though the night sky on a magical talking pony but here we are
      2. brookst · 1790253489 · focus · HN ↗

         This isn’t new though, and Russia has conveniently provided the west with exactly the avenue to respond. Just further increase support to Ukraine, and make it clear that further sabotage and really anything unfortunate that happens will result in even greater support.

         In fact, Russia should be investing heavily in ensuring that nobody else goes asymmetric against NATO countries.

         1. bluGill · 1790255160 · focus · HN ↗

            Most of the west is already helping Ukraine as much as we can within the current budgets (which have already increased a lot over a few years ago - the "peace dividend went away).

            Anything more means countries go to war time funding of some sort. Would you accept if the law made buying or working on video games illegal for the duration - that is everybody currently making a video game now has to switch to working on something military related.

            I just pulled the above example out of my head randomly, there are plenty of other "non-essential" jobs that could switch to making bombs, shells, tanks, airplanes... (either manufacturing or engineering).

            1. brookst · 1790310964 · focus · HN ↗

               Think asymmetrically. Russia does. Conventional wartime economic adjustments are the wrong move.

               Help Ukraine with intelligence (beyond current), black hat, sabotage within Russia. Arrest and confiscate from oligarchs and their relatives abroad. Flood Russia with counterfeit and defective electronics goods.

               Moving knowledge workers to munitions factories is the 1940 solution. We can do better than that.

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