Thread

1. noir_lord · 1789555669 · focus · HN ↗

   Good, if the middle power democracies don't align/work together they are going to get torn apart in the struggle between the US and China.

   1. dosisking · 1789556534 · focus · HN ↗

      There is no struggle, China has already won.

      1. baxtr · 1789556569 · focus · HN ↗

         In what way has "China already won"?

         1. dosisking · 1789556959 · focus · HN ↗

            > In what way has "China already won"?

            The US has depleted their missile stockpile and can no longer defend anybody. Countries in the Middle East are moving away from the US and forming their own alliances. Taiwan knows that the US cannot do anything to help them. South Korea also knows. The US has weaponized the US Dollar, forcing countries out of the SWIFT system if they don't do what they are told. As a result, the CHIPS system has become the alternative. China understands better how the economy works, with the Belt and Road Initiative. The US government doesn't understand how the economy works, and is run by a bunch of complete m orons.

            1. cbg0 · 1789557481 · focus · HN ↗

               You've said a bunch of things that don't really equate to "China already won".

               1. spacedcowboy · 1789558112 · focus · HN ↗

                  I’m not sure I agree with “already won”, that’s an extreme position, but there are consequences to all the things s/he says. It may be a death of 1000 cuts, or it may hit a tipping point, but the us is certainly walking blindly down the “let China win” road.

                  As a joint us/uk citizen, even I would prefer to deal with China than the USA these days. Predictability is really useful in business, and narcissistic man child presidents aren’t predictable.

               2. dosisking · 1789558237 · focus · HN ↗

                  > You've said a bunch of things that don't really equate to "China already won".

                  There is no path for victory for the US, where it remains the world's reserve currency. China will become the world's reserve currency by 2032.

                  You are simply in denial. Everything that I wrote points to China winning.

                  1. haldujai · 1789558654 · focus · HN ↗

                     [delayed]
                  2. charlieyu1 · 1789559323 · focus · HN ↗

                     This has to be the funniest thing I’ve read for a while. China still has two exchange rates.

                     1. mitxela · 1789561914 · focus · HN ↗

                        So did the US (into gold), once, at a time when it was already the world reserve currency.
                  3. roncesvalles · 1789559436 · focus · HN ↗

                     Reserve currency status entirely depends on whether the issuing authority has the ability to drop a munition over anyone who dares to counterfeit the currency.

                     China's military is good but until it gets that good, no it won't.

                     Because, imagine the scenario where the US simply counterfeits the renminbi. What is China's recourse?

                  4. kakacik · 1789559472 · focus · HN ↗

                     Folks can keep their heads in the sand for pretty long, as long as they look just at progressively smaller circle around them and ignore rest of reality.

                     The momentum China already gained, and gaining more every day is well beyond anything in the west. Plus if you consider the position they are rising from, its properly meteoric. Nobody knows future, but its rather easy to continue projection with current, or even a bit slower pace and within 1 or 2 decades, situation will be pretty clear from any objective perspective.

                     Above is purely technological/process progress. Add US making enemy of whole world in one brilliant move, something that is practically irreversible in upcoming decades, and situation is clear. Military (without ammo) alone won't give you much negotiating power. LLMs can be replicated elsewhere with rather little cost, and soon some small bleeding edge advantage will be largely meaningless for most practical tasks.

                     It doesn't even matter what near future brings, this is settled and no amount of denial from US or self-patting is changing that.

               3. layer8 · 1789558729 · focus · HN ↗

                  It’s meant in the sense of “omae wa mou shindeiru", i.e. that defeat will be unavoidable.
            2. roncesvalles · 1789559169 · focus · HN ↗

               Every single point you've made is either straight up untrue or comes with caveats. I hate to quote Trump but, in light of Brandolini's law: "Wrong."
            3. weatherlite · 1789559683 · focus · HN ↗

               > China understands better how the economy works,

               Many people avoid Chinese stocks like the plague because the system is still half communist and as a foreign investor you get some paper in a company on Cayman Island instead of real direct ownership. That keeps me from buying their stocks and I'm not the only one.

               1. mitxela · 1789561975 · focus · HN ↗

                  China understanding the economy appears to include them understanding that an economy consists of producing and trading goods and services, not a cancerous stock market. You can't invest in their stocks because that would be bad for their economy.

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