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Vote on which of Hacker News' challenges for AI have been met

202 points · 271 comments · stabbles

  1. simianwords · · focus · HN ↗
    I made a bet with a guy on HN that the market value of OpenAI + Anthropic would get to at least 2.5T by 2027. I think I'm on track to winning.

    <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=48517353">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=48517353

    I also made a bet that API inference margins are greater than 10% for OpenAI and Anthropic

    <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=48500827">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=48500827

    I can make another prediction about Agentic Commerce and I think it will get big. Muse + Grok Bot + Dots.

    1. kridsdale1 · · focus · HN ↗
      But there is no market value pre ipo
      1. win311fwg · · focus · HN ↗
        The exact market value cannot be known without a sale, but it seems highly unlikely that nobody would be a willing buyer, even if just for $1. You&#x27;d have a better chance of winning 100 separate lotteries while simultaneously getting struck by lighting and attacked by a shark than those companies having no market value. Speculative valuations, while never perfect, tend to not be that far out of whack.
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