Thread

Vote on which of Hacker News' challenges for AI have been met

202 points · 271 comments · stabbles

simianwords · 1790878764 · focus · HN ↗
I made a bet with a guy on HN that the market value of OpenAI + Anthropic would get to at least 2.5T by 2027. I think I'm on track to winning.
<a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48517353">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48517353
I also made a bet that API inference margins are greater than 10% for OpenAI and Anthropic
<a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48500827">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48500827
I can make another prediction about Agentic Commerce and I think it will get big. Muse + Grok Bot + Dots.
1. mrweasel · 1790880101 · focus · HN ↗
  You're very lucky that market value and actual value isn't the same thing.
  1. jryle70 · 1790901192 · focus · HN ↗
    Not the same thing because there is no "actual value". You should claim that invention.
2. ngruhn · 1790880466 · focus · HN ↗
  I love it! Kinda wholesome how that heated discussion ended with that bet.
3. mcphage · 1790881049 · focus · HN ↗
  > API inference margins are greater than 10% for OpenAI and Anthropic
  How do you measure that?
  1. 48844858 · 1790895446 · focus · HN ↗
    With Amodei's special accounting ofc
    jryle70 · 1790901231 · focus · HN ↗
    Which is?
    simianwords · 1790923570 · focus · HN ↗
    “Amodei is spreading fake news and doing hype marketing to fool investors into investing in Anthropic so that he can cash it in before the bubble pops”
4. kridsdale1 · 1790882138 · focus · HN ↗
  But there is no market value pre ipo
  1. win311fwg · 1790956788 · focus · HN ↗
    The exact market value cannot be known without a sale, but it seems highly unlikely that nobody would be a willing buyer, even if just for $1. You'd have a better chance of winning 100 separate lotteries while simultaneously getting struck by lighting and attacked by a shark than those companies having no market value. Speculative valuations, while never perfect, tend to not be that far out of whack.

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