Everyone seems to forget that if everyone followed the “AI-proof career” advice to become a plumber, electrician or carpenter - then there’d be so many of them that the pay would go down considerably
There's a very large difference between robots on a new construction project - we're still quite a few years away from that - and the sort of flexibility and problem solving required for "old work" (fixing broken pipes, installing new wiring in existing homes etc. etc). I very very much doubt that the latter type of work will be roboticized within 50-100 years, even if the former might be.
You sound like I sounded in 2021 but for software, and robots (will) have LLMs/RSI to make them advance even faster. It probably even starts like software where I can buy a home repair assistant to do basic repairs or maintenance, but that advanced to the point where it could source and renovate an entire room. I don’t doubt that white-collar work will be obsolete before blue-collar, but 50-100 years feels way off. I’d say 15-20.
If you've ever done residential wiring or plumbing fixes in an older home, I suspect you'd share my opinion.
That's why I differentiated between robots working on new construction sites, where I do think that a 15-20 year timeline is entirely feasible (not necessarily desirable, but feasible). That's an entirely different task than renovations in an existing building, which is much *much* harder even for humans.
Also note that there's another way of thinking about where technology will take housebuilding that already exists: more factory-assembled modular cosntruction. That's less popular in the USA, with its focus on single family "unique" homes, but is taking off elsewhere and is already highly automated.
I suspect what will happen is that the relative value of fixing 100 year old construction will decrease. Sure you can hire someone for 20k to fix the broken plumbing in your house or you can get a new one for 30k that also has the windows, kitchen, electrical and insulation fixed.
Yeah this has essentially already happened for HVAC - repair is often more expensive than replacement because labor is so expensive and parts are so cheap.
JSR_FDED · · focus · HN ↗
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The value of human labor is going to the price of electricity and raw materials outside of a few, small realms and people are not ready for that fact.
PaulDavisThe1st · · focus · HN ↗
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PaulDavisThe1st · · focus · HN ↗
That's why I differentiated between robots working on new construction sites, where I do think that a 15-20 year timeline is entirely feasible (not necessarily desirable, but feasible). That's an entirely different task than renovations in an existing building, which is much *much* harder even for humans.
Also note that there's another way of thinking about where technology will take housebuilding that already exists: more factory-assembled modular cosntruction. That's less popular in the USA, with its focus on single family "unique" homes, but is taking off elsewhere and is already highly automated.
qazxcvbnmlp · · focus · HN ↗
mday404 · · focus · HN ↗
PaulDavisThe1st · · focus · HN ↗
For wiring/plumbing/ducting runs ... not so much.