Everyone seems to forget that if everyone followed the “AI-proof career” advice to become a plumber, electrician or carpenter - then there’d be so many of them that the pay would go down considerably
> Everyone seems to forget that if everyone followed the “AI-proof career” advice to become a plumber, electrician or carpenter - then there’d be so many of them that the pay would go down considerably
The demand will also drop through the floor because the people who previously had the well-paying white collar jobs who are a large amount of the non-corporate customers for trades people will be gone, so they can no longer afford to hire you. The corporate customers will have far less need for facilities other than data centers because they won't have nearly as many meat employees to house, so the demand craters there too.
And some amount of the other people fleeing to the trades will have taken up your specific trade, and why would they pay someone to do something they can do themselves.
So you'll have massively increased labor supply as everyone flees to these "AI safe" jobs and massively decreased demand due to a flattened low-wage economy where almost everyone is trying to scrape by on a trades job.
If the AI labor disruption is big enough to cause a serious problem for all knowledge workers, I don't see how it doesn't take everything else down with it. The entire economy as we know it just spirals into chaos leading to, probably, violent revolution.
Exactly this I've been saying also. It’s completely obvious and I don’t understand how this argument is not brought up more frequent. If AI would take let’s say 50% of IT jobs there'd be a huge drop in consumer demand that’d send shockwaves through the entire economy…
Me too. I am personally much less worried about typical AI doomsday scenarios like bioweapons or mass hacking swarms. I am sure those will happen, but will be relatively targeted (even if that means huge numbers of casualties). But something like unemployment of nearly all working age people across humanity is really an apocalyptic scenario. I can't imagine how terrible it will be that no one has any drive or ambition any longer. We can already see the signs of this future coming, with AI use destroying education, and the staleness of modern culture.
On the other hand a loooot of people will inherit badly run down homes from their parents as the boomers finally go six feet under. That means a loooooooooot of demand. And on top of that we got the shift off of fossil fuels to electric cars, heat pumps, decentralized production (solar) and storage, which means yet another serious piece of demand.
Are you sure about that correlation? I mean how would those who inherit this old stock pay for all these renovations if they just lost their job to the AI and barely scrape by? Maybe then the 70s tiles bathroom doesn’t looks so bad anymore.
Indeed. My original 1967 white 1"-square tile bathroom floor looks pretty good if I keep it clean. In fact, when I reflect that it was laid down nearly 60 years ago by someone more likely than not no longer alive, it looks very good.
I think you are overestimating the shift off of fossil fuels. I mean, MAYBE people will finally wake up now that the cost of feul is so high, but I wouldn't bet on it.
People here in these comments are largely just naive or unable to understand things outside of some nerd fantasy or something. If white collar jobs become untenable, the economy will just collapse. The idea people will suddenly go to the trades and work on "solar power" as someone said just mind-numbing nonsense. It would be a very unstable situation and "pulling wire for the county" would not be the main focus of the day.
So people working in white collar jobs are holding the economy hostage? That's basically your point. But society has shown it is far more resilient than narratives like this would make you believe. We seem to have survived through a lot events such as the 2008 crash and covid as recent examples. And yet there is no "collapse" except in the most extreme cases. Even some countries that are in war have not yet "collapsed".
Grandparent poster is making the claim that the economy is structured in a certain way. Their claim is that simply dismantling the existing structure of labour and economy is something that will have a very negative effect.
Also the COVID part is a false analogy / non sequitur. COVID was expected to end. Surviving COVID doesn't mean the economy can survive permanent shocks.
Everything either eventually ends or we adapt, and Covid shut down a lot of blue collar work. Society is resilient and has proven to be many times over not just with Covid.
The west has transitioned away from a manufacturing economy into a service economy. We gave China all the manufacturing while we (the US) transitioned into a 'service' economy. Once the service economy is run by AI, there will be no jobs here. Manufacturing ain't coming back...well maybe once everyone is impoverished and willing to work 40 hours a week for their bread ration.
> The idea people will suddenly go to the trades and work on "solar power" as someone said just mind-numbing nonsense.
That is pretty obvious and mostly correct idea. I don't understand why people who have even a little bit of common sense about how the economy works thinks that mass layoffs of programmers or office workers will destroy the economy.
I think we're a few decades away, at least, from seeing a robot on something like a residential construction site. Sure they look good in a flat controlled environment, but humans have a hard time walking around a construction site. Then there is the dexterity issues that they have an human hands excel at. The startup cost of a robot is probably 4x the cost of an entry level tradesperson, at least.
Right now, today, modular homes are factory built, transported and site assembled (accurately lowered into place and levelled on biscuits to hydraulic jack together) that are multiple large Lego blocks of click together cast concrete foundation with utility piping inbuilt and "some part of a larger house" fully built above.
These can be trucked or flown into place.
Factory built simplifies full trade critical path, with pipeline schedule of custom variations moving through to be wired, plumbed, built out and finished.
Also opportunity for automation streamlining.
Simpler offerings of that market look like: <a href="https://modularwa.com.au/" rel="nofollow">https://modularwa.com.au/
There's a very large difference between robots on a new construction project - we're still quite a few years away from that - and the sort of flexibility and problem solving required for "old work" (fixing broken pipes, installing new wiring in existing homes etc. etc). I very very much doubt that the latter type of work will be roboticized within 50-100 years, even if the former might be.
You sound like I sounded in 2021 but for software, and robots (will) have LLMs/RSI to make them advance even faster. It probably even starts like software where I can buy a home repair assistant to do basic repairs or maintenance, but that advanced to the point where it could source and renovate an entire room. I don’t doubt that white-collar work will be obsolete before blue-collar, but 50-100 years feels way off. I’d say 15-20.
If you've ever done residential wiring or plumbing fixes in an older home, I suspect you'd share my opinion.
That's why I differentiated between robots working on new construction sites, where I do think that a 15-20 year timeline is entirely feasible (not necessarily desirable, but feasible). That's an entirely different task than renovations in an existing building, which is much *much* harder even for humans.
Also note that there's another way of thinking about where technology will take housebuilding that already exists: more factory-assembled modular cosntruction. That's less popular in the USA, with its focus on single family "unique" homes, but is taking off elsewhere and is already highly automated.
I suspect what will happen is that the relative value of fixing 100 year old construction will decrease. Sure you can hire someone for 20k to fix the broken plumbing in your house or you can get a new one for 30k that also has the windows, kitchen, electrical and insulation fixed.
Yeah this has essentially already happened for HVAC - repair is often more expensive than replacement because labor is so expensive and parts are so cheap.
If there actually is a large displacement of white collar work because of AI there will simultaneously be 1) a huge surplus of physical labor which will bring wages down 2) a huge decrease in the number of people who can afford to employ tradespeople.
The dynamics of blue collar employment would obviously be changed as a second order effect of white collar worker displacement
JSR_FDED · · focus · HN ↗
georgemcbay · · focus · HN ↗
The demand will also drop through the floor because the people who previously had the well-paying white collar jobs who are a large amount of the non-corporate customers for trades people will be gone, so they can no longer afford to hire you. The corporate customers will have far less need for facilities other than data centers because they won't have nearly as many meat employees to house, so the demand craters there too.
And some amount of the other people fleeing to the trades will have taken up your specific trade, and why would they pay someone to do something they can do themselves.
So you'll have massively increased labor supply as everyone flees to these "AI safe" jobs and massively decreased demand due to a flattened low-wage economy where almost everyone is trying to scrape by on a trades job.
If the AI labor disruption is big enough to cause a serious problem for all knowledge workers, I don't see how it doesn't take everything else down with it. The entire economy as we know it just spirals into chaos leading to, probably, violent revolution.
king_crimson · · focus · HN ↗
gWPVhyxPHqvk · · focus · HN ↗
adabyron · · focus · HN ↗
henry_flower · · focus · HN ↗
mschuster91 · · focus · HN ↗
king_crimson · · focus · HN ↗
bookofjoe · · focus · HN ↗
MentalM · · focus · HN ↗
I mean then they will start to sell their homes and situation for those who can buy them cheaply and renovate will become even better, no?
Geezus_42 · · focus · HN ↗
dinkumthinkum · · focus · HN ↗
password54321 · · focus · HN ↗
whstl · · focus · HN ↗
Also the COVID part is a false analogy / non sequitur. COVID was expected to end. Surviving COVID doesn't mean the economy can survive permanent shocks.
password54321 · · focus · HN ↗
bethekidyouwant · · focus · HN ↗
whstl · · focus · HN ↗
Not permanently. And, as sibling pointed, not at all in lots of areas.
vinyl7 · · focus · HN ↗
MentalM · · focus · HN ↗
That is pretty obvious and mostly correct idea. I don't understand why people who have even a little bit of common sense about how the economy works thinks that mass layoffs of programmers or office workers will destroy the economy.
gWPVhyxPHqvk · · focus · HN ↗
The value of human labor is going to the price of electricity and raw materials outside of a few, small realms and people are not ready for that fact.
mattbrewsbytes · · focus · HN ↗
defrost · · focus · HN ↗
These can be trucked or flown into place.
Factory built simplifies full trade critical path, with pipeline schedule of custom variations moving through to be wired, plumbed, built out and finished.
Also opportunity for automation streamlining.
Simpler offerings of that market look like: <a href="https://modularwa.com.au/" rel="nofollow">https://modularwa.com.au/
PaulDavisThe1st · · focus · HN ↗
gWPVhyxPHqvk · · focus · HN ↗
PaulDavisThe1st · · focus · HN ↗
That's why I differentiated between robots working on new construction sites, where I do think that a 15-20 year timeline is entirely feasible (not necessarily desirable, but feasible). That's an entirely different task than renovations in an existing building, which is much *much* harder even for humans.
Also note that there's another way of thinking about where technology will take housebuilding that already exists: more factory-assembled modular cosntruction. That's less popular in the USA, with its focus on single family "unique" homes, but is taking off elsewhere and is already highly automated.
qazxcvbnmlp · · focus · HN ↗
mday404 · · focus · HN ↗
PaulDavisThe1st · · focus · HN ↗
For wiring/plumbing/ducting runs ... not so much.
StevePrefontain · · focus · HN ↗
The dynamics of blue collar employment would obviously be changed as a second order effect of white collar worker displacement