Thread

California farmers are struggling to sell grapes as demand for wine drops

389 points · 987 comments · randycupertino

djmips · 1790644503 · focus · HN ↗
Perhaps demand is going down abroad due to people eschewing US products.
1. _spduchamp · 1790649957 · focus · HN ↗
  This.
  1. ltbarcly3 · 1790655872 · focus · HN ↗
    OMG, it's interesting to see how the average person reasons about the world.
    You have your pet theory, you, without evidence, decide that every fact you see is confirmation for that theory, so now you believe your theory even more.
    I want to say something to make you feel bad about this, but you think I'm telling you that you were right all along.
    alkonaut · 1790675003 · focus · HN ↗
    The fact that US wine declines more than other wine isn't a theory it's a fact. The reason could have several theories. One is that people are simply boycotting. This is supported by polls etc. But another would be if prices drift apart and a strong dollar makes US wine less attractive relative to (say) French and Italian wines.
    As usual the reason overall wine sales would be down e.g. 10% and US wine sales down 20% in a country will be a combination of multiple factors. My pet theory though is that at least for some countries, the boycott factor is the big one.
    ltbarcly3 · 1790741149 · focus · HN ↗
    Since all the us wine sold in canada is a tiny fraction of the dip in sales it literally can't have any real consequence. But enjoy your little theory.
    alkonaut · 1790768602 · focus · HN ↗
    What does Canada have to do with what I wrote? I described one country and it wasn't Canada. But ok, Re: US wine exports to Canada (I have no idea about what this looks like, but a quick googling found several articles).
    > "In 2025 the U.S. wine exports plummeted 33.5 percent compared to 2024, driven largely by a 76.8 percent drop to its largest market, Canada, according to new data just released by the U.S. Census Bureau. In total, American wine exports fell from $1.3 billion in 2024 to $850 million this past year, a $428 million loss." [1]
    So the largest export market dropped by 3/4 which led the total exports to fall by 1/3. I don't know how that is anything but a "real consequence"?
    [1] <a href="https://robbreport.com/food-drink/wine/us-wine-exports-fell-33-percent-1237578978/" rel="nofollow">https://robbreport.com/food-drink/wine/us-wine-exports-fell-...
    ltbarcly3 · 1790837549 · focus · HN ↗
    US wine sales domestically are $115 Billion per year.
    You documented a 450 million dollar drop.
    That constitutes a 0.3% reduction in sales vs the US domestic market.
    As you can see, you are completely wrong. Even if Canada stopped importing US wine completely, it would constitute about 1% of just domestic sales.
    m4ck_ · 1790680230 · focus · HN ↗
    Do we really need evidence to draw a line between the US's biggest trading partners boycotting the US alcohol industry and a drop in sales in the US alcohol industry? I feel like the only way you don't make that connection is if you're either severely uninformed or so lost down the MAGA rabbit hole you've forgotten the taste of food, the sound of water, the touch of grass...
    ltbarcly3 · 1790691749 · focus · HN ↗
    Yes, you need evidence lol. Yes.
    Thank you for confirming my point though.
    Do you really go through life seeing confirmation of all your beliefs everywhere, without ever checking?
    US consumers spend about $115 Billion annually on wine. Exports to canada are less than 1% of that. I don't see how Canada matters much to the US in general, and specifically it doesn't make sense that a 70% reduction in half a percent of wine sales (that's like 0.4% reduction overall) is a major factor in putting the industry out of business, but you are welcome to look it up yourself or correct me. Keep in mind that US wine sold in canada will have gone through several hands and be heavily taxed, so the amount per bottle getting back to grape growers is a very small percentage of that already tiny percentage.
    But of course you won't bother to look it up, you will just roll your eyes and assume US grape growers are being forced out of business because Manitoba's liquor stores are finally flexing their international influence!
    m4ck_ · 1790693241 · focus · HN ↗
    If you believe that the US trade war and threats to Canada and Europe aren't directly impacting US alcohol sales, I'm fairly certain that is exactly what you are doing. I don't need "evidence" beyond what I'm already aware of: Alcohol industry trade groups (American craft spirits association for example), and representatives from states with strong alcohol industries, have publicly acknowledged the trade war's impact, or even begged for relief. And that's on top of Canadian liquor stores publicly announcing they're pulling American products.
    My guess is the only evidence you'll accept is the word of the party and the dear leader.
    Hugsbox · 1790682321 · focus · HN ↗
    Where I live in Canada, it's not even a case of the consumers boycotting the products... they've been ordered to be removed from the shelves by the government. They're not even an _option_ to purchase. I think it's fair to say there's a bit of a cause-and-effect thing going on there when it comes to the impact on American alcohol producers. And when/if they do return to shelves, the general sentiment seems to suggest they still won't sell very well.

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