The problem imo is the slow deterioration of institutional knowledge that offloading the mental task of wisdom gathering to AI is causing.
One interesting comparison is to the history of manufacturing. West/America decided one day that manufacturing would be cheaper to outsource and better (short term) profit was to be made by outsourcing it all to China. The institutional expertise started to deteriorate, to the point that America simply didn't even have the capacity, or expertise anymore to produce stuff (such as grill brush [1])
I feel like you could take all the handwavy comment that are made today to dismiss this caution, and find equal dismissal back then when companies were actively outsourcing the manufacturing.
"I'm coding 10x faster"
"look at the output velocity per employee"
"we are producing much more (in China)"
"look at profit / number of (manufacturing) employers"
Seems ok if you're American / Chinese but I'm struggling to understand how the rest can be OK with allowing institutional knowledge to deteriorate while having an active dependency to the former two. We already see this with the tech dependency towards USA and manufacturing competition from China.
> I feel like you could take all the handwavy comment that are made today to dismiss this caution, and find equal dismissal back then when companies were actively outsourcing the manufacturing.
Absolutely people were extremely dismissive to anyone saying that we're losing the ability to make things in this country!
There were all these theories like Comparative Advantage that people would trot out to point out that, if you don't like outsourcing, not only are you ignorant and backwards you're also probably racist.
And they were right. American manufacturing is $3 trillion/year, second only to China, and 1/5th of the entire world. American built airliners and American built engines fly all over the world. Millions of American cars come out of factories every year. American rockets put more into orbit than everyone else combined.
The idea that the US lost its manufacturing is not based in reality. One reason people think that is because people think cheap plastic crap and consumer electronics when they think “manufacturing.” Another reason is that US manufacturing has become highly efficient and automated, so a fairly small portion of the population works in it.
Yeah, your iPhone wasn’t built in the US. But the plane that got it here probably was.
Why are you championing a system that benefits a smaller minority of people every year? Americans don't prosper when Apple sells iphones. Americans don't prosper when they sell more F150s. The sure as heck don't prosper when Boeing sells 747s either.
You literally are praising a system that condemned tens of millions of Americans to abject poverty because the rich wanted slightly better returns.
How is that the case? Apple, Ford, and Boeing are American companies that hire mostly Americans, with some number of H1-Bs. Those Americans pay taxes in California, Michigan, Washington, and elsewhere, and also to the federal government. Those taxes get redistributed to all of America, as determined by the budget as set by Congress and the President. We can complain about billionaires at the top not paying their fair share, and that the budget isn't set how you would, but largely, that is the deal. The workers on iPhone, the F150, the 7*7 pay their taxes in America. Those three are American success stories.
Boeing builds their planes in America, F150s are largely built in Michigan, iPhones are manufactured in China, but California is much richer because of the taxes that Apple employees pay. Millions of Americans are in poverty according to the latest census, but I don't know how you establish cause for that poverty being "that rich people wanted higher returns".
Those three companies employ hundreds of thousands of Americans. Millions more are employed by suppliers, contractors, dealers, etc. Selling iPhones, F-150s, and 7x7s is how those people make their living. In what sense are they not prospering from that?
Americans are better off than they've ever been. The improvement has disproportionately gone to the wealthy, but even the poorest have seen gains, not losses.
I don't understand this kind of comment. It's like some sort of disaster fantasy. Like you need it to be a crapsack world full of slums, so you come up with absurd takes like American companies employing huge number of Americans not contributing to American prosperity, and just make up troubles.
NalNezumi · · focus · HN ↗
One interesting comparison is to the history of manufacturing. West/America decided one day that manufacturing would be cheaper to outsource and better (short term) profit was to be made by outsourcing it all to China. The institutional expertise started to deteriorate, to the point that America simply didn't even have the capacity, or expertise anymore to produce stuff (such as grill brush [1])
I feel like you could take all the handwavy comment that are made today to dismiss this caution, and find equal dismissal back then when companies were actively outsourcing the manufacturing.
"I'm coding 10x faster" "look at the output velocity per employee"
"we are producing much more (in China)" "look at profit / number of (manufacturing) employers"
Seems ok if you're American / Chinese but I'm struggling to understand how the rest can be OK with allowing institutional knowledge to deteriorate while having an active dependency to the former two. We already see this with the tech dependency towards USA and manufacturing competition from China.
[1] <a href="https://youtu.be/3ZTGwcHQfLY" rel="nofollow">https://youtu.be/3ZTGwcHQfLY
jordanb · · focus · HN ↗
Absolutely people were extremely dismissive to anyone saying that we're losing the ability to make things in this country!
There were all these theories like Comparative Advantage that people would trot out to point out that, if you don't like outsourcing, not only are you ignorant and backwards you're also probably racist.
wat10000 · · focus · HN ↗
The idea that the US lost its manufacturing is not based in reality. One reason people think that is because people think cheap plastic crap and consumer electronics when they think “manufacturing.” Another reason is that US manufacturing has become highly efficient and automated, so a fairly small portion of the population works in it.
Yeah, your iPhone wasn’t built in the US. But the plane that got it here probably was.
shimman · · focus · HN ↗
You literally are praising a system that condemned tens of millions of Americans to abject poverty because the rich wanted slightly better returns.
fragmede · · focus · HN ↗
Boeing builds their planes in America, F150s are largely built in Michigan, iPhones are manufactured in China, but California is much richer because of the taxes that Apple employees pay. Millions of Americans are in poverty according to the latest census, but I don't know how you establish cause for that poverty being "that rich people wanted higher returns".
wat10000 · · focus · HN ↗
Americans are better off than they've ever been. The improvement has disproportionately gone to the wealthy, but even the poorest have seen gains, not losses.
I don't understand this kind of comment. It's like some sort of disaster fantasy. Like you need it to be a crapsack world full of slums, so you come up with absurd takes like American companies employing huge number of Americans not contributing to American prosperity, and just make up troubles.