Thread

1. HarHarVeryFunny · 1789937583 · focus · HN ↗

   On a related note, I was reading yesterday that apparently the real bottleneck for Chinese production of AI accelerators is HBM production, not processors or ASML equipment.

   The lack of ASML EUV machines certainly hurts, and pushing DUV so hard results in abysmal yields of good chips, but you can compensate by running more wafers or making smaller chips, and the net result is that Huawei's Ascend production volume is limited by CXMT's HBM capacity not processor dies.

   The problem is that HBM manufacture requires many steps (die thinning, via drilling, plating, alignment) where the equipment used by everyone else (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron) is also blocked by sanctions, so the Chinese are having to develop all of this themselves too, which they have, but yields are currently low, even when using shorter HBM stacks.

   1. jacquesm · 1789951954 · focus · HN ↗

      The only thing the West is achieving here is that sooner or later China will be able to compete on their own terms rather than ours. It may buy some time but the end result is very predictable.

      1. bigcat12345678 · 1789960301 · focus · HN ↗

         As other comments pointed out, that was always China's plan, the value here is really that when the Chinese overlord annillate the world's industrial competition, they'll have the moral high ground of being out of self-reliance and hostility by western monopolists.

         Edit:

         And, that, my fellow keyboard high-minded thinker but powerless corp peons, was also part of the China's plan all along.

         1. Woodi · 1789966954 · focus · HN ↗

            > [...] that was always China's plan, [...] they'll have the moral high ground

            It's a possibility. It is also possible that they will steal yesterday's technology and still pretend to have moral high ground.

            I do not wish China and Chinees wrong but most probably communism will work as it always do - by faking thing and bringing self-harm to their own citizens.

            1. mitxela · 1789981872 · focus · HN ↗

               In free markets, everyone steals everything they can, and stops everyone else stealing from them as much as they can. This is normal and expected. The ideology says that it will even out and converge to a fair situation.

               1. hobo123 · 1789999904 · focus · HN ↗

                  And by stealing you mean exchange? Or I somehow misunderstood what you consider a market to be - a place for pickpockets?

                  1. theeyescanner · 1790012637 · focus · HN ↗

                     Our LLMs were trained on the widespread theft of copyright content, with clearly defined and well tested law. But they made capitalists too much money so it became defacto legal.

                     Next you'll be telling me fairy tales like "laws are real".

                  2. mitxela · 1790029971 · focus · HN ↗

                     If you're paying money for something you could get for free, you're a sucker. Ordinarily the person who is selling it makes sure you can't get it for free.

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