Thread

1. cmiles8 · 1791103225 · focus · HN ↗

   Every bubble goes through this phase just before it pops. Pre-implosion Twitter had tons of folks doing useless “research” projects, WeWork had folks studying furniture design’s impact on wellbeing, and so on.

   When you’re more worried about this sort of stuff vs generating profit then the history books strongly indicate that’s usually not a good omen of what’s coming next.

   1. bonoboTP · 1791103903 · focus · HN ↗

      What do you expect to happen? The technology to disappear and for us to go back to living like it's 2021? It will just pop and be gone?

      1. hyperbovine · 1791121485 · focus · HN ↗

         Technology != company. The tech is here to stay but we still don’t have an example of a company that has figured out how to make a profit off of it. That will come, and it might be OpenAI or Anthropic that does it … but it might not.

         1. zarzavat · 1791123226 · focus · HN ↗

            The "bubble" is being driven by blockbuster earnings. The market is irrational but it's not brain dead.

            1. gallerdude · 1791125912 · focus · HN ↗

               I don't think people really understand that this market cycle is very different from the internet bubble because of all the strong earnings.

               1. tzone · 1791127681 · focus · HN ↗

                  Well we don't know what the margins on AI models will be. If the proprietary models hit a ceiling pretty soon, then open source models and harnesses could close the gap, at that point it becomes much more of a lower margin business. And OpenAI and Anthropic will no longer be able to dominate as much as they are today. That would 100% affect their projected multi trillion valuations negatively.

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