Every bubble goes through this phase just before it pops. Pre-implosion Twitter had tons of folks doing useless “research” projects, WeWork had folks studying furniture design’s impact on wellbeing, and so on.
When you’re more worried about this sort of stuff vs generating profit then the history books strongly indicate that’s usually not a good omen of what’s coming next.
Not OP but I think the most obvious change will be rapid price increases as investors begin to demand profits - no more subsidised $20p/m plans for example.
As I see it, price increases will lead to a huge loss of users, the two big companies will go bust, hardware manufacturers will have to slash prices, cancel increased capacity projects, etc.
And users will make do with what their newly bought cheap hardware will run, which I think is going to be more than enough for everyone that doesn't need to solve another millenium problem.
Right the most likely outcome to me is a pop and slow fizzle. Mega capex labs become uneconomic at the prices they need to charge to do more training runs. Non frontier cheap models become good enough at far less cost that people use that.
The use cases LLMs are useful for without lots of RF/fine tuning proves more limited than the expansive views currently held.
We get a generalized productivity boost the way the internet gave us, without any one sector or company being a winner take all of that productivity gain.
cmiles8 · · focus · HN ↗
When you’re more worried about this sort of stuff vs generating profit then the history books strongly indicate that’s usually not a good omen of what’s coming next.
bonoboTP · · focus · HN ↗
ymhr · · focus · HN ↗
PowerElectronix · · focus · HN ↗
And users will make do with what their newly bought cheap hardware will run, which I think is going to be more than enough for everyone that doesn't need to solve another millenium problem.
steveBK123 · · focus · HN ↗
The use cases LLMs are useful for without lots of RF/fine tuning proves more limited than the expansive views currently held.
We get a generalized productivity boost the way the internet gave us, without any one sector or company being a winner take all of that productivity gain.