Thread

1. reducesuffering · 1791073971 · focus · HN ↗

   “I believe there’s about a 50% chance we all die because of the development of smarter-than-human AI systems, and that our actions over the next two to 10 years will determine the outcome.”

   There are a gargantuan number of extremely intelligent AI researchers and Turing Award winners saying the same thing. They are the ones closest to understanding the technology.

   Where there’s smoke there’s fire.

   1. biophysboy · 1791078148 · focus · HN ↗

      Where does 50% come from? It is meaningless if the probability model is not explained.

      1. 0xDEAFBEAD · 1791079843 · focus · HN ↗

         One could also use language like "a decent chance". But research has shown that people translate vague phrases like "a decent chance" into probabilities in inconsistent ways. For an ML researcher who is already used to dealing in next-token probabilities that aren't rigorously determined, just stating a probability estimate directly is very natural.

         1. danielmarkbruce · 1791082261 · focus · HN ↗

            For anyone who gambles, or deals with financial markets it's also a very natural way to speak.

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