Thread

1. 2001zhaozhao · 1790979207 · focus · HN ↗

   This couldn't be more true. Companies will be driven by AI harnesses (as defined by this article) that automate decision-making and prioritization. In the medium term, may the company with the best harness win.

   In the longer term, the downstream impact is massive commoditization of software and invalidation of most existing moats. Data moats are gone if you can simulate the data with AI. Even platform effects can be sidestepped if AI replaces one side of the platform.

   In addition, while right now agile startups have the advantage, at some point the balance will start tilting towards whoever has the most tokens (OR perhaps durable moats will trump even near-infinite tokens; we will have to see). Startups have a limited time window to have whatever impact in the world they are hoping to have, or to build a moat that won't be disrupted by AI, but there are few of them left in the world.

   The upside is that when there is a lot of commoditization, then the consumer benefits.

   1. vanuatu · 1790980588 · focus · HN ↗

      imo there are a few real moats left assuming no superintelligent RSI scenario

      - capital, as money is scarce

      - network effects, as human attention is scarce

      - relationships, as human attention is scarce

      - research talent, assuming there exists some field(s) that AI is unable to surpass the best researchers

      - proprietary data and sensors, as systems of record and action are scarce (training data, on the other hand, can maybe we simulated, but I'm pretty bearish in general on the idea of fully simulated data)

      1. ForHackernews · 1790982481 · focus · HN ↗

         Trust. I trust the Debian maintainers. I don't trust OpenAI.

         If AI levels out most other distinctions, maybe in the end we choose to give money to people we trust.

         1. Sammi · 1791018333 · focus · HN ↗

            This is the essence of what a "brand" is.

            Most microphones on professional stages are Shure microphones. They cost more than microphones that get equivalent reviews for performance. So why do audio professionals keep buying expensive Shure microphones? Because they have a proven track record of being extremely reliable. No one wants to be responsible for the mic failing during a performance. So people trust Shure to be reliable. Trust builds up over a long time and becomes what we call a brand.

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