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How accurately calibrated is Jev?

53 points · 22 comments · dblack12705

  1. clarle · · focus · HN ↗
    Wouldn't asking humans have this same kind of problem too?

    If you asked a set of humans to generate a random distribution of heads or tails from coin flips, it wouldn't be similar to a real world distribution of coin flips either because we also have our own biases. [1]

    [1] &quot;Heads or tails?&quot;--a reachability bias in binary choice&quot; - <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov&#x2F;24773285&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov&#x2F;24773285&#x2F;

    1. unholiness · · focus · HN ↗
      I don&#x27;t think so. The author is expecting Jev to output the equivalent of &quot;H: 50%, T:50%&quot;, not the equivalent of &quot;TTHTTHTHH...&quot;
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