Thread

US tells France and Germany to release diesel stocks or face US export ban

97 points · 151 comments · geox

ShadowOfThePit · 1790922073 · focus · HN ↗
Non-Paywalled article: <a href="https://politicstoday.org/us-presses-france-and-germany-to-release-diesel-stocks-as-fuel-prices-surge/" rel="nofollow">https://politicstoday.org/us-presses-france-and-germany-to-r...
Why doesn't he ban exports right away, forcing Europe to use their stockpiles anyways?
Is it that he can't? So the entire threat is moot?
Is he thinking of using the Graham bill to threaten +100% tarrifs for buying Russian gas?
1. westpfelia · 1790924189 · focus · HN ↗
  If he bans exports the EU is screwed over. It will destroy what little good will the EU has towards the US. It will cause the EU to double down on Chinese partnerships and you will see the EV transition happen faster ESPECIALLY in the Semi Truck space.
  1. Yokolos · 1790926108 · focus · HN ↗
    No, the US is screwed over. From what I've read, many areas in the US are completely reliant on imports because of how the current logistics and production/processing chain/infrastructure is setup. And the market disruption caused by an export ban would wreak complete havoc in those regions and cause significant price spikes starting from diesel and then rippling out to anything reliant on it.
    This is why he hasn't done it yet. Everybody in the US with money at stake called him and told him it was a stupid idea.
    lurk2 · 1790926744 · focus · HN ↗
    > From what I've read, many areas in the US are completely reliant on imports because of how the current logistics and production/processing chain/infrastructure is setup.
    Which areas are you referring to?
    Henchman21 · 1790953861 · focus · HN ↗
    No op but — we don’t make anything here. It’s imports all the way down.
    lurk2 · 1791097754 · focus · HN ↗
    That isn’t true at all.
    hunterpayne · 1790993322 · focus · HN ↗
    Only 7% of the US economy is involved in international trade and most of that is with Canada and Mexico. The US is by far the country who is least reliant on the system of international trade. There are only 2 elements that the US doesn't have internal access to and that's it. Everything else is available internal to the US market. Basically, you need the US. The US doesn't need you and never has.
2. fabian2k · 1790926396 · focus · HN ↗
  As far as I understand, the US produces more Diesel than it consumes. A blanket export ban would mean that refineries would have to shut down because they can't get rid of all the Diesel they produce. But since refineries produce more than one product, this would affect other oil products as well. That doesn't sound like a situation you want.
  But this is based on my simplistic understanding of how this works, I'm really not sure about the details.
3. hvb2 · 1790927071 · focus · HN ↗
  > Why doesn't he ban exports right away, forcing Europe to use their stockpiles anyways?
  Because big oil doesn't like that.
  And as others said, diesel is just one product. If you want to keep producing the other products you'll have to sell or store that diesel. The capacity is too much for the US alone and storing all excess capacity isn't feasible. So if he does it, there will be a surplus which means big oil will lose a large amount of money.
  1. AnimalMuppet · 1790949817 · focus · HN ↗
    Wait, what? We have excess diesel? We're producing more than we can use? Then why is the price so high?
    nullocator · 1790960792 · focus · HN ↗
    I can't speak to whether or not we have excess diesel, but the price would be high because U.S. diesel is sold outside of the united states, so if EU members are willing to pay higher $$$ for it, then that's what U.S. oil producers will sell it for, raising domestic prices in turn.
    hvb2 · 1790965955 · focus · HN ↗
    If you cannot export it because of a ban, you would have excess diesel yes. Assuming you keep refining at the same rate as demand for the other products hasn't gone down
    hunterpayne · 1790994246 · focus · HN ↗
    Its only high on the west coast. That's because of multiple complicated reasons. Basically the west coast is an independent energy zone from the rest of the US. And California (where most of the refineries are for historical reasons) hasn't made very informed choices with its energy policy. Also, the oil they use comes from abroad while the oil in the rest of the US comes from domestic sources and the rest is exported. Also, there isn't a lot of heavy sour crude in the world and that's the type of oil that yields the most diesel.
    There is a lot more to it, but its too complicated to explain in a post.
    histriosum · 1790996434 · focus · HN ↗
    > Its only high on the west coast. That's because of multiple complicated reasons.
    This takes any weight out of your argument, because it’s demonstrably false. I live in Michigan, and diesel was between 6.50 and 6.99 a gallon a couple days ago, which is a bit lower than it had been the week before.
    A zillion gas price sites would also show that this statement is false. It is not just “the west coast”.

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