Honest question for devs out there... is anyone worried? I don't see enough frank conversation happening around this subject. Timelines. How long until salaries fall? Is it too early to stalk thinking about back up plans? Am I crazy?
No, you should be thinking about backup plans, because you should assume you’re not going to walk into another career (I am not suggesting that you are).
- People in other industries actually have specialist knowledge (this is something IT people forget)
- AI is coming for those jobs too
- and so are lots of other people, not just displaced techies but from any number of other industries.
Thinking about it in advance should include training yourself up for other sectors.
If AI is successful, it will be a very different world of jobhunting. If it’s unsuccessful there will still be job losses for a while because of overspending, and because of the wider economic issues.
It is not clear to me that it is yet at a level of success to cause massive tech job losses (it's just causing large-scale misery).
It's also not clear to me that the level of success in the tech industry is truly being repeated anywhere else. There are industries where generative AI is actually a liability (the law, finance) and where it is increasingly viewed as repugnant (design, the arts, to some extent photography where deep learning noise reduction tools are OK but the culture is swinging hard against other generative uses).
I am also not convinced it is "objectively" successful in the tech industry, considering the extent to which most token pricing is subsidised and people's reluctance to demonstrate ROI even on subsidised/bundled tokens.
I'm not claiming it is unsuccessful. Just that I don't think the job apocalypse is here yet. Though this product (ChatGPT Sites) is very indicative of a coming tech job apocalypse in pure software services.
It's certainly at a level of success where people should start thinking about a "Go bag" on an employment level. Keep your CV up to date, work on gaps in non-tech skills, consider other qualifications.
bananaflag · · focus · HN ↗
copperx · · focus · HN ↗
jr3592 · · focus · HN ↗
dofm · · focus · HN ↗
- People in other industries actually have specialist knowledge (this is something IT people forget)
- AI is coming for those jobs too
- and so are lots of other people, not just displaced techies but from any number of other industries.
Thinking about it in advance should include training yourself up for other sectors.
If AI is successful, it will be a very different world of jobhunting. If it’s unsuccessful there will still be job losses for a while because of overspending, and because of the wider economic issues.
dofm · · focus · HN ↗
Sorry, I switched senses in the middle of this.
Should have written either:
"because you should not assume you’re going to walk into another career (I am not suggesting that you are)"
or something like
"because you should assume you’re not going to walk into another career (I am not suggesting that you think you might)"
Need to write my posts less hurriedly.
ryan_n · · focus · HN ↗
dofm · · focus · HN ↗
It's also not clear to me that the level of success in the tech industry is truly being repeated anywhere else. There are industries where generative AI is actually a liability (the law, finance) and where it is increasingly viewed as repugnant (design, the arts, to some extent photography where deep learning noise reduction tools are OK but the culture is swinging hard against other generative uses).
I am also not convinced it is "objectively" successful in the tech industry, considering the extent to which most token pricing is subsidised and people's reluctance to demonstrate ROI even on subsidised/bundled tokens.
I'm not claiming it is unsuccessful. Just that I don't think the job apocalypse is here yet. Though this product (ChatGPT Sites) is very indicative of a coming tech job apocalypse in pure software services.
It's certainly at a level of success where people should start thinking about a "Go bag" on an employment level. Keep your CV up to date, work on gaps in non-tech skills, consider other qualifications.