Enron was massive accounting fraud. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. Where is your evidence of accounting fraud? "Lots of companies investing lots of money into AI and it might not work out" isn't fraud.
The AI Economy (Part 2) - What Enron Can Teach Investors About the AI Boom - <a href="https://michiganfinancial.com/blog/the-ai-economy-part-2-what-enron-can-teach-investors-about-the-ai-boom" rel="nofollow">https://michiganfinancial.com/blog/the-ai-economy-part-2-wha... - August 4th, 2026
> Enron is often remembered simply as one of the largest corporate frauds in American history. While this is true, there are lessons to be learned from the way investors acted during this time. At its peak, Enron was viewed as one of America's most innovative companies. Investors believed it had fundamentally transformed the energy business through sophisticated trading platforms, financial engineering, and technology-driven markets. Its stock price reflected extraordinary confidence in the company's future rather than its demonstrated earning power.
> Part of that confidence was fueled by Enron's use of mark-to-market accounting, which allowed the company to recognize estimated profits from long-term contracts immediately instead of waiting for those profits to actually be earned. Future expectations effectively became present-day earnings. Those projections were wildly "optimistic". When investors realized the expected profits were unlikely to materialize, confidence disappeared almost overnight. Between August 2000 and November 2001, Enron's stock collapsed from roughly $90 per share to just pennies, erasing billions of dollars of wealth and devastating employees and retirement investors alike.
Draw your attention to:
> Despite the advancements created through use of AI and the increasing numbers of applications, investors still face an important question: How much of today's valuation reflects profits that have actually been earned, and how much reflects profits investors hope will eventually exist?
and
> Artificial intelligence represents one of the most significant technological developments of our generation. Its long-term impact may ultimately justify much of today's enthusiasm in the market. History, however, reminds us that markets frequently price revolutionary technologies well before their economic potential is fully realized and fluctuations occur in even the most stable sectors.
> The lesson from Enron is not that today's AI leaders are engaging in similar behavior. It is that investors should remain cautious whenever valuations become increasingly dependent on future expectations rather than demonstrated earning power.
Anthropic's IPO prospectus illustrates this fairly well.
Anthropic's IPO Prospectus Is a Fucking Doozy - <a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49914149">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49914149 - September 2026
Anthropic's IPO prospectus shows AI vision, surging costs - <a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49886005">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49886005 - September 2026
> Matt Levine's summary of Sam Altman's (and most of AI industry's) business plan remains accurate: "We will create God and then ask it for money."
MTM accounting isn't fraudulent. Investors knew Enron was doing it. The fraud part was when those projected profits fell apart, Enron would hide the losses.
AI having bonkers valuations isn't fraudulent, maybe delusional, but not fraud. Fraud is the act of outright lying to investors about things that are factually true (not hypothetically true).
"We will have trillions in profits" = not fraud, forecasts can be anything
"We have trillions in profits" = fraud, they don't and they are lying.
You're focusing on the wrong part in the example. Enron's valuation was driven by irrational exuberance and market sentiment. In the case of Enron, the numbers were a fraud. In the case of AI, the numbers show utter carnage but everyone is trading on hope like it's musical chairs. There simply will never be enough revenue to justify to date and forward looking capex. At some point, investors are going to figure out they've been sold a bag of beans.
> "We will have trillions in profits" = not fraud, forecasts can be anything
The forecasts are dishonest and not grounded in reality. I might as well tell you my magic startup is going to consume total global TAM of all human economic activity. Sure it is. If we're going to excuse fraud as forecasts when it's clear the forecasts are simply fever dreams, we agree to disagree.
AI needs $6T in annual revenue to justify data centre boom - <a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49898952">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49898952 - September 2026
From the above thread: "To put this into perspective, healthcare, real estate and banking each earn ~$1.5T in revenue annually. This is REVENUE, not profit which is obviously lower than the revenue in every industry. I fail to understand how AI can achieve $6T in annual revenue when the TAM for healthcare and banking is a quarter of that in the US."
You might as well argue you can break the speed of light and control gravity if facts no longer matter. Are those forecasts made in good faith?
Additional citation:
"AI is a multipole Enron" | David Gerard - <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iur27O732w8" rel="nofollow">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iur27O732w8 ("Will Guyatt from The Tech Report talks to David Gerard from Pivot-to-AI about Oracle referring to a gas-pipeline delay at a mega data centre as an act of God, and why the business of building AI infrastructure increasingly looks like a house of cards.")
jqpabc123 · · focus · HN ↗
ralph84 · · focus · HN ↗
toomuchtodo · · focus · HN ↗
> Enron is often remembered simply as one of the largest corporate frauds in American history. While this is true, there are lessons to be learned from the way investors acted during this time. At its peak, Enron was viewed as one of America's most innovative companies. Investors believed it had fundamentally transformed the energy business through sophisticated trading platforms, financial engineering, and technology-driven markets. Its stock price reflected extraordinary confidence in the company's future rather than its demonstrated earning power.
> Part of that confidence was fueled by Enron's use of mark-to-market accounting, which allowed the company to recognize estimated profits from long-term contracts immediately instead of waiting for those profits to actually be earned. Future expectations effectively became present-day earnings. Those projections were wildly "optimistic". When investors realized the expected profits were unlikely to materialize, confidence disappeared almost overnight. Between August 2000 and November 2001, Enron's stock collapsed from roughly $90 per share to just pennies, erasing billions of dollars of wealth and devastating employees and retirement investors alike.
Draw your attention to:
> Despite the advancements created through use of AI and the increasing numbers of applications, investors still face an important question: How much of today's valuation reflects profits that have actually been earned, and how much reflects profits investors hope will eventually exist?
and
> Artificial intelligence represents one of the most significant technological developments of our generation. Its long-term impact may ultimately justify much of today's enthusiasm in the market. History, however, reminds us that markets frequently price revolutionary technologies well before their economic potential is fully realized and fluctuations occur in even the most stable sectors.
> The lesson from Enron is not that today's AI leaders are engaging in similar behavior. It is that investors should remain cautious whenever valuations become increasingly dependent on future expectations rather than demonstrated earning power.
TLDR <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reflexivity_(social_theory)" rel="nofollow">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reflexivity_(social_theory)
Anthropic's IPO prospectus illustrates this fairly well.
Anthropic's IPO Prospectus Is a Fucking Doozy - <a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49914149">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49914149 - September 2026
Anthropic's IPO prospectus shows AI vision, surging costs - <a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49886005">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49886005 - September 2026
> Matt Levine's summary of Sam Altman's (and most of AI industry's) business plan remains accurate: "We will create God and then ask it for money."
WarmWash · · focus · HN ↗
MTM accounting isn't fraudulent. Investors knew Enron was doing it. The fraud part was when those projected profits fell apart, Enron would hide the losses.
AI having bonkers valuations isn't fraudulent, maybe delusional, but not fraud. Fraud is the act of outright lying to investors about things that are factually true (not hypothetically true).
"We will have trillions in profits" = not fraud, forecasts can be anything
"We have trillions in profits" = fraud, they don't and they are lying.
toomuchtodo · · focus · HN ↗
> "We will have trillions in profits" = not fraud, forecasts can be anything
The forecasts are dishonest and not grounded in reality. I might as well tell you my magic startup is going to consume total global TAM of all human economic activity. Sure it is. If we're going to excuse fraud as forecasts when it's clear the forecasts are simply fever dreams, we agree to disagree.
AI needs $6T in annual revenue to justify data centre boom - <a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49898952">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49898952 - September 2026
From the above thread: "To put this into perspective, healthcare, real estate and banking each earn ~$1.5T in revenue annually. This is REVENUE, not profit which is obviously lower than the revenue in every industry. I fail to understand how AI can achieve $6T in annual revenue when the TAM for healthcare and banking is a quarter of that in the US."
You might as well argue you can break the speed of light and control gravity if facts no longer matter. Are those forecasts made in good faith?
Additional citation:
"AI is a multipole Enron" | David Gerard - <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iur27O732w8" rel="nofollow">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iur27O732w8 ("Will Guyatt from The Tech Report talks to David Gerard from Pivot-to-AI about Oracle referring to a gas-pipeline delay at a mega data centre as an act of God, and why the business of building AI infrastructure increasingly looks like a house of cards.")
WarmWash · · focus · HN ↗
It's not fraud to promise something, however insane.
It is fraud to say you have something when you don't, however banal.