‹ BackHN Continuity

Thread

Vote on which of Hacker News' challenges for AI have been met

202 points · 271 comments · stabbles

  1. joegibbs · · focus · HN ↗
    There's one of mine in there where I predicted in 2023 that it would be 20 years until AI would be reliably able to entirely build and deploy arbitrary applications from a prompt. I was off by about 18 years on that one!
    1. aleph_minus_one · · focus · HN ↗
      > There's one of mine in there where I predicted in 2023 that it would be 20 years until AI would be reliably able to entirely build and deploy arbitrary applications from a prompt. I was off by about 18 years on that one!

      If you take "arbitrary" seriously, we are still very far away from it.

      1. desterothx · · focus · HN ↗
        I would argue you need to prove p=np before using the term arbitrary
        1. aleph_minus_one · · focus · HN ↗
          P vs NP does not mean what people think it means:

          - Even if we have P=NP, it is not even known whether there will ever exist a "practically useful/fast" algorithm for solving NP-complete decision problems.

          - If P != NP, it is perfectly reasonable that there exists an algorithm that is for all practical purposes "fast" algorithm (say, some O(n^{log log log log log log log n}) algorithm with a very small hidden constant) for solving NP-complete decision problems.

          - It is entirely possible that average case complexity is the much more important complexity measure than the worst-time measure that is used for defining the P and NP complexity classes. If you are into this kind of questions, you might enjoy the article

          Fifty Years of P vs. NP and the Possibility of the Impossible

          <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;cacm.acm.org&#x2F;research&#x2F;fifty-years-of-p-vs-np-and-the-possibility-of-the-impossible&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;cacm.acm.org&#x2F;research&#x2F;fifty-years-of-p-vs-np-and-the...

          and the paper

          R. Impagliazzo

          A personal view of average-case complexity

          <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.karlin.mff.cuni.cz&#x2F;~krajicek&#x2F;ri5svetu.pdf" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.karlin.mff.cuni.cz&#x2F;~krajicek&#x2F;ri5svetu.pdf

          --

          Also, in the realm of complexity theory, the question of P vs NP is just a small puzzle piece.

          Just to give one example: isn&#x27;t the question of P vs PSPACE much more exciting. If you believe in P != NP, P != PSPACE is a trivial corollary. But we can&#x27;t even exclude P = PSPACE.

          Seriously: there exist so many complexity classes (some of high potential practical importance) for which we often basically know nothing except for the trivial inclusions.

Open on Hacker News to reply ↗

Unofficial Hacker News client; not affiliated with Y Combinator.