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Vote on which of Hacker News' challenges for AI have been met

202 points · 271 comments · stabbles

bmenrigh · 1790878994 · focus · HN ↗
At least 1/3rd of these predictions aren't clear enough to determine exactly what is being claimed/predicted. Even after reading the full comment multiple times, on a lot of them I couldn't tell where the author had set the goalposts well enough to say whether we've crossed it or not.
1. jerf · 1790879650 · focus · HN ↗
  Well, I can answer this one: <a href="https://stoppels.ch/goalposts/?c=40662140" rel="nofollow">https://stoppels.ch/goalposts/?c=40662140
  jerf, 2024: "If it could be solved with a Math Overflow-post level of effort, even from Terence Tao, it isn't what I was talking about as "high level math".
  "I also am not surprised by "Consider a generation function" coming out of an LLM. I am talking about a system that could solve that problem, entirely, as doing high level math. A system that can emit "have you considered using wood?" is not a system that can build a house autonomously.
  "It especially won't seem all that useful next to the generation of AIs I anticipate to be coming which use LLMs as a component to understand the world but are not just big LLMs."
  The voting gloss: "An AI fully solves a research-level math problem on its own, not just suggesting an approach."
  Yes, I'm satisfied. I don't even feel bad in hindsight. Coding assistants had a nice, gradual rise up the utility curve. Math went from "lol, can't add two six-digit numbers" to research-math level almost overnight in comparison.
  1. 48844858 · 1790895210 · focus · HN ↗
    But it still makes mistakes when adding numbers
    rcxdude · 1790936942 · focus · HN ↗
    This correlates quite strongly with advanced mathematics capability in humans as well :P. In the list of people I would trust to add two two-digit numbers correctly, a maths PhD puts you in the bottom half of the list.

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