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Canada fast-tracks Pacific oil pipeline to reduce US dependence

83 points · 96 comments · geox

  1. simojo · · focus · HN ↗
    So many people come and give doomer statements on the reality of the US and Canada becoming increasingly at odds.

    As a US citizen, I just want to add that I hope some day we can reestablish a healthy relationship with our neighbors. These articles are saddening.

    1. reedf1 · · focus · HN ↗
      It won't happen in our lifetime. American's are yet to fully understand the impact, it will take 50 years or more to go back to 2024.
      1. newsclues · · focus · HN ↗
        The reality of trade and geography will shorten the timeframe.

        Remember that the Canadians claimed to care a lot about climate change, and sending goods to Asian or Europe has a greater environmental cost than shipping to America.

        Do you really think the Canadian government will stop advertising on YouTube and Facebook? The Canadian PM mainly does news with American companies...

        1. [deleted] · · focus · HN ↗

          [deleted]

      2. yostrovs · · focus · HN ↗
        It's not at all clear to most Americans what the consequences are. This pipeline, for example, sounds like something Americans should welcome because it will finally allow Canada to offer its oil to the world market in significant quantities. It will allow Canada to export significantly more than they do now, pushing down prices. It wasn't built until now purely because of internal Canadian environmental concerns. If Canadians think it's a good idea to now destroy vast amounts of their forest to get to some of the most difficult to process oil in the world, then that's what it is and they get to make some money as a benefit. But it doesn't seem at all like some kind of rational reaction to American foreign policy.
        1. Sytten · · focus · HN ↗
          The Canadian oil is always 10-20% cheaper right now because it only has one buyer, if anything the price will just track the global market more
          1. yostrovs · · focus · HN ↗
            Ability to export more will lead to greater production.
          2. bryanlarsen · · focus · HN ↗
            The pipeline will both increase the price Canada gets for its oil by reducing the share the railways get from the price, and (very slightly) decrease the world price because of increased supply.
            1. db48x · · focus · HN ↗
              Splitting the earnings differently between Canada and Canadian railway companies is a zero–sum game. It just changes which company makes what percentage of the profit. The real win for Canada will be additional production. The Prime Minister of Canada stated that the new pipeline would allow them to “export an additional 1 million barrels a day to growing markets in Asia.” That’s a net benefit for everyone. It’s additional profits for Canadian society and increased supply on the world market.
      3. standardUser · · focus · HN ↗
        The Trump presidency, and his absurd trade wars, are deeply unpopular in the US. I'd be shocked if most Canadians don't understand this fully and see Trumpism for the personality-driven anomaly that it is.
        1. i80and · · focus · HN ↗
          They're unpopular, but we're apparently a fickle and short-memoried people with few real legal safeguards or principles.

          Trump was deeply unpopular at the end of his first term too, and Americans still went back for a second bite.

          We gotta look inward and, metaphorically speaking, go to rehab.

        2. throwaway86047 · · focus · HN ↗
          "America isn’t the way it is because Trump’s president. Trump’s president because America is the way it is." - David Cochrane
          1. YZF · · focus · HN ↗
            I agree. I would also say America is the way it's always been. With good and bad. America is not homogeneous. It is not simple. It is complex. It has and have always had, Neo-Nazis, and human rights champions. Poverty and wealth. Amazing educational institutes, and schools where kids stab each other. Conspiracy theorists, and smart reasonable people.

            Reducing America to one simple statement is not possible.

        3. bparsons · · focus · HN ↗
          The democrats have shown little desire or ability to reverse GOP foreign policy once they get into power. They normalize those policies and keep the seat warm for the next mad man.
        4. esikich · · focus · HN ↗
          It isn't an anomaly. He was elected twice. He has done real damage. Hell, 1/3 of Americans don't even vote. Whether or not most Americans feel bad about it doesn't matter. Actual damage is being done.
        5. yongjik · · focus · HN ↗
          Pollsters estimate that Republicans still have >30% chance of retaining the Senate majority. (Better than what pollsters gave Trump before he won in 2016.)

          This isn't a deeply unpopular anomaly. This is a significant chunk of America, and they may easily regain the majority if the economy improves in a few years (or if it worsens further under a Democratic president).

        6. YZF · · focus · HN ↗
          "most Canadians" as a demographic is unable to grasp complexity. They are being rallied to the flag and they rally. Like everyone else these days they all have their echo chambers. It's an easy sell. This is just human nature.

          Current day politics are about polarization. More so than ever. There is no room for nuance. This is what worked for Trump and this is what worked for Carney and the Liberals in Canada. The Liberals didn't win on some brilliant policies they simply won on anti-American feelings.

          This is not a statement on who is right or wrong. There are certainly many aspects of Trump's behaviour here that most would say are wrong. The problem is when we lose nuance and debate we can't make progress. But a leader in today's world that introduces nuance loses to the leader that polarizes. Dragging us all down.

        7. hylaride · · focus · HN ↗
          "Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me".

          American re-elected him, despite the cronyism, jan 6, mental decline, etc. Combined with the democrats are so self defeating and they also repeatedly poked at trade issues (the loooooong running softwood lumber disputes, Keystone XL, "buy American" provisions that ignored NAFTA/USMCA for projects that were going ahead w/o the provisions, etc).

          We know what populism is (we've experienced and are experiencing it ourselves) and know that it is usually fleeting, but we don't trust another "smarter" nativist president to come along and screw us again.

          Also, there's an internal game going on here. Canada has (institutionally) took the "easy" way out of controversial projects, often due to our proximity to the US. This has meant that when some projects run into a greater than normal amount of political resistance (eg environmental fights against pipelines or LNG terminals), the default has usually been to back off. But Trump has in a way given cover to actually move forward.

          I don't expect the next president to "cave" so easily. Even before he was sworn in, republicans had their messaging in full swing against Obama about the deficit. I fully expect the same thing to hammer the next president on trade if they're a democrat.

        8. bryanlarsen · · focus · HN ↗
          Gavin Newsom has promised to retain some of the tariffs if he's elected president in 2028.
          1. standardUser · · focus · HN ↗
            Tariffs may be more politically feasible moving forward, but not these extreme tariffs and sudden trade wars that are driven by Trump's temper tantrums and benefit no one.
      4. [deleted] · · focus · HN ↗

        [deleted]

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