Thread

1. jfasi · 1790860571 · focus · HN ↗

   My prediction: nothing will come of this, and these investigations will either be concluded favorably or dropped no less than six months after the midterms.

   There's only one voice that matters in this administration, and he has already made it quite clear that he both does not consider AI to be an issue, and he is more than happy to trample over his agencies to enforce his opinion.

   1. dgellow · 1790861304 · focus · HN ↗

      Under that framework I could see Anthropic being blocked from IPO-ing. Amodei was just slightly more confrontational than the other players by wanting to stick to their ethics (which is a really low bar). Given Trump is the pettiest person ever and does everything by vibes, I wouldn’t exclude something dramatic, like pushing Amodei out and replacing him with someone he can control better.

      Just speculating here, there is no way to predict how that will play out

      1. strange_quark · 1790864569 · focus · HN ↗

         Too conspiratorial to think that they (the AI companies) want to be blocked or at least temporarily delayed from IPO? Finances are too bad to do it but delaying for ambiguous reasons will sink their valuations. Trump can’t let the stock market collapse before the midterms. Hence this whole big safety dog and pony show. Keep the market up until the midterms, then hand off the bag.

         1. dgellow · 1790868439 · focus · HN ↗

            Hmm, my instinct is to say that’s too far fetched, but given how corrupt that whole thing is I really don’t know. I would add that to the list of possibilities and reevaluate how plausible that is once we see Anthropic’s 2026 numbers.

            Though it’s pretty depressing that we can’t just dismiss it directly…

         2. brokenmachine · 1790900666 · focus · HN ↗

            Also, if the govt steps in, the AI companies can declare force majeure so they can kick the can down the road a bit longer.

            Oracle is the canary.

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