Thread

1. ocd · 1790861971 · focus · HN ↗

   I'm not a business guy, but I think I would be very worried if I created any opening (even on the very long term) for competition to justify itself being built up to meet demand (or national security requirements of other countries) on an industry I mostly control, because I prioritized extremely high prices for a few years that might have the effect of changing the arithmetic for potential competitors that wouldn't have done it before.

   It makes me consider whether there would be retaliation in later years against the US intellectual property system in countries other than China. While RAM is a tangible product, the areas it serves aren't really.

   1. httpz · 1790887987 · focus · HN ↗

      The Big 3 (Samsung, Hynix, Micron) have been playing this game for 30+ years. There used to be many more DRAM companies but most of them went bankrupt when DRAM was cheap because the big 3 will intentionally drive the price down to bankrupt the competition. Now that they have a tri-opoly, they're milking the profits. New competition will emerge but they don't have the capital of the big 3 so they likely won't survive the next DRAM winter.

      1. seizethecheese · 1790890420 · focus · HN ↗

         You seem to be adding a lot of intentionality to price swings that seem expected when supply is relatively fixed while demand fluctuates. (Maybe you’re right, but it’s not the simpler explanation.)

         1. httpz · 1790891847 · focus · HN ↗

            The supply isn't fixed. A new plant takes 3-5 years to build and cost tens of billions. DRAM companies don't always know where the demand will be when the next plant completes. 2 years ago there was too much supply so DRAM price hit rock bottom. So DRAM companies held back on investing in new plants so here we are now.

            1. seizethecheese · 1790892407 · focus · HN ↗

               The comment said "relatively fixed" and a charitable reading that "relatively" here means in the short run.

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