Thread

1. ocd · 1790861971 · focus · HN ↗

   I'm not a business guy, but I think I would be very worried if I created any opening (even on the very long term) for competition to justify itself being built up to meet demand (or national security requirements of other countries) on an industry I mostly control, because I prioritized extremely high prices for a few years that might have the effect of changing the arithmetic for potential competitors that wouldn't have done it before.

   It makes me consider whether there would be retaliation in later years against the US intellectual property system in countries other than China. While RAM is a tangible product, the areas it serves aren't really.

   1. radford-neal · 1790870747 · focus · HN ↗

      If I understand this comment correctly, it's saying that Micron and the others would be better off selling RAM at below the price they could get, in order to keep competitors from deciding to enter the market.

      Such collusion might well be a violation of anti-trust law, but in any case, it wouldn't work. If they decide to sell at below-market price, they must (by definition) be preventing some customers from buying by some non-price mechanism (eg, only selling to companies run by other members of the CEO's family). Potential competitors would then see an opportunity to sell to these excluded customers.

      1. idiotsecant · 1790874701 · focus · HN ↗

         Yes, one of those markets with infinite demand where supply has no impact on price. Those ones.

         1. bigbadfeline · 1790886106 · focus · HN ↗

            > Yes, one of those markets with infinite demand where supply has no impact on price. Those ones.

            In economics, "demand" doesn't mean "I want this", it means paid, funded demand. 100s of millions of "free" LLM users aren't funded demand, they're subsidized. This leads to front-running and scalping the silicon market at an unreal scale, it also monopolizes access to silicon and compute. Nothing happens by chance here.

            1. m4rtink · 1790926131 · focus · HN ↗

               Yeah, there once was an insatiable demand for pick axes, mining supplies, saloons and "related services" - until one day it was not.

               Eventually we got the same ghost town after this AI bubble madness.

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