Thread

1. api · 1790861468 · focus · HN ↗

   CXMT is coming for this market, and this creates a huge opening for it.

   1. genxy · 1790865181 · focus · HN ↗

      CXMT isn't going to just magically price memory like it is 5 years ago. Maybe 10-20% lower, but not some integer multiple lower.

      1. crote · 1790866889 · focus · HN ↗

         That's today. You have to think about what the industry is going to look like in a decade.

         Building a DRAM company from scratch is hard, expensive, and risky. You're burning a fortune to get started, and the result is a commodity product. But the AI bubble allows CXMT to have terrible yields, sell a legacy product, and still make a healthy profit! This is literally a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to catch up.

         And yes, right now that means selling DRAM for 10% below the crazy AI-inflated prices the incumbents charge. But sooner or later either demand will drop or supply will catch up. CXMT, like many other Chinese companies, is undoubtedly willing to operate at razor-thin margins to increase market share. Either the other manufacturers move down as well, or they'll be made irrelevant by CXMT stealing all their customers.

         1. Danox · 1790880277 · focus · HN ↗

            Absolutely. far too many people are thinking about the next 2 to 4 years. How many times must they see the Chinese play the long game before they figure it out?

            1. genxy · 1790883670 · focus · HN ↗

               I agree with everything here, but lots of people have magical thinking that CXMT will just instantly erase the run-up in memory prices.

               1. m4rtink · 1790957311 · focus · HN ↗

                  I guess they can at least prevent it going up further ? The will also make a lot of money they can then re-invest in expanding their capacity.

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