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Micron CEO Says Memory Supply Will Be Much Tighter in 2027 and 2028 Than in 2026

394 points · 443 comments · speckx

  1. api · · focus · HN ↗
    CXMT is coming for this market, and this creates a huge opening for it.
    1. genxy · · focus · HN ↗
      CXMT isn't going to just magically price memory like it is 5 years ago. Maybe 10-20% lower, but not some integer multiple lower.
      1. api · · focus · HN ↗
        Oh sure, they'll take profits while they can, but the supply increase will start pulling the market down. It's how price signals work.

        Only way to keep prices this high would be a multinational cartel of RAM makers agreeing never to compete on price. One defector kills it. Not likely you could keep a cartel like this given that the players are all on different sides of geopolitical tensions. China's not going to want to help keep Taiwan, Japan, Germany, or the USA in the money.

        1. Danox · · focus · HN ↗
          Not gonna happen with China in the world, they will sell to every place else on the face of the planet this memory bump is temporary, also keeping it high means other companies will reconfigure what they do. if you want to continue to sell millions of devices at a reasonable price, you’re not going to sit on the sidelines and wait for the three-headed cartel.

          You are going to get busy. and design and engineer around the cartel. Is there one company in the world that might do that? A company that has the engineering, design and the money with the capacity to execute over time?

          1. genxy · · focus · HN ↗
            Are you telling me that Intel will corner the market on <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.intel.com&#x2F;content&#x2F;www&#x2F;us&#x2F;en&#x2F;history&#x2F;virtual-vault&#x2F;articles&#x2F;intels-first-product-3101.html" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.intel.com&#x2F;content&#x2F;www&#x2F;us&#x2F;en&#x2F;history&#x2F;virtual-vaul...

            Because that would be smart. And they have the packaging tech to add compute to it.

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