Thread

1. ocd · 1790861971 · focus · HN ↗

   I'm not a business guy, but I think I would be very worried if I created any opening (even on the very long term) for competition to justify itself being built up to meet demand (or national security requirements of other countries) on an industry I mostly control, because I prioritized extremely high prices for a few years that might have the effect of changing the arithmetic for potential competitors that wouldn't have done it before.

   It makes me consider whether there would be retaliation in later years against the US intellectual property system in countries other than China. While RAM is a tangible product, the areas it serves aren't really.

   1. xenadu02 · 1790865582 · focus · HN ↗

      Micron has several fabs and fab upgrades coming online or under construction right now. An expansion in Boise and Virginia. Plus a huge megafab project in New York that's going to be the biggest in the world AFAIK.

      All the DRAM makers have new fabs or plant expansions underway right now - indicating they believe the demand increase to be sustainable.

      1. hn_go_brrrrr · 1790869872 · focus · HN ↗

         How many years ago did they start construction on these projects? How many years before that did they greenlight the project? I'm quite skeptical the timelines are short enough to line up with the AI boom.

         1. xenadu02 · 1790882796 · focus · HN ↗

            That's the death trap of silicon boom-bust cycles that have claimed so many in the industry. Demand surges, you start expanding, the bust arrives, you go out of business.

            Micron is putting up over $100 billion for this expansion wave IIRC. You can't afford that unless you are certain the increase in demand is sustainable.

            You want to assure investors that investment will pay off so you want to talk up your order book and market outlook.

            You also want to take as much profit as you can now so if things turn against you it doesn't mean bankruptcy. A pile of cash fixes many problems :)

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