Thread

1. ocd · 1790861971 · focus · HN ↗

   I'm not a business guy, but I think I would be very worried if I created any opening (even on the very long term) for competition to justify itself being built up to meet demand (or national security requirements of other countries) on an industry I mostly control, because I prioritized extremely high prices for a few years that might have the effect of changing the arithmetic for potential competitors that wouldn't have done it before.

   It makes me consider whether there would be retaliation in later years against the US intellectual property system in countries other than China. While RAM is a tangible product, the areas it serves aren't really.

   1. mcv · 1790868712 · focus · HN ↗

      I honestly expected that there would be more competition entering the memory market by now. I know it takes a lot of time and capital, but Europe has plenty of semiconductor know-how with ASML and ARM, and a strong desire to be less dependent on other parts of the world, so investment in a European semiconductor industry would make a lot of sense to me. And these high memory prices sound like the perfect opportunity.

      1. pjc50 · 1790869691 · focus · HN ↗

         It takes too long! It's like all the people going "why don't we just build nuclear", without looking at the construction times of recent plants.

         1. Danox · 1790878852 · focus · HN ↗

            What are those construction times in China? Not just for nuclear, but also memory or semiconductor plants, probably less than what it is in the West.

            The three-headed A memory cartel should enjoy their brief moment in the sun. Because for the five years it will be over, and when I say over, it’ll be over for good…

         2. stubish · 1790919262 · focus · HN ↗

            If you want supply independence, you have to start sometime. It is unlikely that Taiwan joins the EU and solves the problem that way.
      2. matwood · 1790920644 · focus · HN ↗

         It takes money and time. I think it’s telling we haven’t seen additional investment yet. Maybe those with the money also see this bubble ending soon? Otherwise a commodity with 80%+ margins would have competitors coming in from all sides.

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