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Micron CEO Says Memory Supply Will Be Much Tighter in 2027 and 2028 Than in 2026

394 points · 443 comments · speckx

  1. ocd · · focus · HN ↗
    I'm not a business guy, but I think I would be very worried if I created any opening (even on the very long term) for competition to justify itself being built up to meet demand (or national security requirements of other countries) on an industry I mostly control, because I prioritized extremely high prices for a few years that might have the effect of changing the arithmetic for potential competitors that wouldn't have done it before.

    It makes me consider whether there would be retaliation in later years against the US intellectual property system in countries other than China. While RAM is a tangible product, the areas it serves aren't really.

    1. malfist · · focus · HN ↗
      The argument I've seen about why someone else doesn't start selling RAM is it takes a year or two to ramp production. But here's a CEO saying he's going to make sure prices stay high enough, long enough that you can spin up a competitor
      1. tzs · · focus · HN ↗
        > But here's a CEO saying he's going to make sure prices stay high enough, long enough that you can spin up a competitor

        Where does he say he's going to make sure prices stay high?

        1. nvme0n1p1 · · focus · HN ↗
          Micron is a trillion dollar company. The CEO would never say something like that directly. He's talking in the "business dialect" of English and you have to read between the lines a bit.
          1. tzs · · focus · HN ↗
            The CEO is saying nothing that everyone who analyzes the situation and knows at least something about semiconductor production wouldn't say. Demand is way up, supply cannot keep up, it will take some time to increase supply.

            Micron is working on increasing that supply. The started building a massive fab for DRAM in 2022 in Idaho. It should start production in 2027. They started a second massive fab for DRAM next to it in 2023 with production scheduled for 2028.

            1. vondur · · focus · HN ↗
              This is the info that people should be looking at. Building these facilities takes time. I'm guessing they are thinking that demand is not going to decline anytime soon to justify this buildout. EDIT both SKHynix and Samsung are also expanding their DRAM production lines and new plants. So they are all working on adding new capacity.
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