Thread

1. proxysna · 1790860572 · focus · HN ↗

   I have huge hopes fox CXMT entering the market and at least offsetting this nightmare. Just this week i've paid ~$1k USD for 2x32G DDR5 ECC, insane.

   1. elorant · 1790860663 · focus · HN ↗

      They don't have the infrastructure to meet global demand.

      1. bryanlarsen · 1790861662 · focus · HN ↗

         Yet. Maybe they will by 2028, making this prediction incorrect.
      2. Grombobulous · 1790862169 · focus · HN ↗

         I would never bet against a Chinese company ramping up production quickly.

         1. ngl999 · 1790863016 · focus · HN ↗

            They'll probably join the party and hype about tight demand by that time.

            1. maratc · 1790863956 · focus · HN ↗

               In communist China, the party joins you.
      3. vidarh · 1790862589 · focus · HN ↗

         They're 10% of the market now, and they've shown the ability to scale up manufacturing rapidly. They certainly won't singlehandedly meet demand, but they might at least be able to temper the price growth quite a bit.
      4. HarHarVeryFunny · 1790869843 · focus · HN ↗

         Depends on what kind of memory you are talking about.

         For DRAM, CXMT were only 1% of the global supply 3 years ago, and are now already 10%. They are growing extremely rapidly.

         If you are concerned about consumer memory - smartphones, laptops, desktops, then this is what CXMT are making. CXMT do make HBM too, for AI accelerators, but their volume there is held back by sanctions.

      5. Danox · 1790879419 · focus · HN ↗

         Right now, but that’s gonna change rapidly over the next five years. Once again, they didn’t have a space station. now they do…
   2. aurareturn · 1790863179 · focus · HN ↗

      Everyone, and I mean everyone, is gated by ASML machines. They can't make nearly enough EUV machines to satisfy the demand. ASML has also not scaled their production nearly as much because they're quite far away from the AGI-pilled companies in the supply chain.

      1. Tuna-Fish · 1790863536 · focus · HN ↗

         Well, CXMT is not gated by ASML machines because they can't buy them. They can raise their capacity because they have access to the domestically produced steppers. They are not as good as the ASML ones, and if the memory prices were not bonkers, they'd never make a profit using them, but as it is the low yields and high die sizes don't matter.

         1. aurareturn · 1790864728 · focus · HN ↗

            They are. They are using ASML DUV machines for memory. Samsung, SK, and Micron have moved onto EUV machines for memory because they are better. So CXMT not only has to rely on ASML, they have to rely on a worse machine to make modern memory chips.
         2. Danox · 1790879355 · focus · HN ↗

            The problem is that you’re giving them an in into the market, and as time goes on, they will get better at making memory. That’s like saying you’re going to exclude the Chinese the space station. Look what happened. They now have their own space station?

            1. aesthesia · 1790889063 · focus · HN ↗

               Given the way that Chinese industrial policy has gone over the last decade, I'm skeptical that this made much of a difference.
      2. genxy · 1790864967 · focus · HN ↗

         You don't need ASML machines to make RAM. BS.

         1. aurareturn · 1790867976 · focus · HN ↗

            All modern DDR5 and HBM are made using EUV machines.

            The exception is CXMT, which uses ASML DUV machines in a less efficient process.

   3. dv_dt · 1790863665 · focus · HN ↗

      The greed and shortsightedness from both the memory makers and their big customers trying to lock out competitors from memory purchases is palpable. The first act of a Shakespearean or Greek Tragedy is where the characters take the actions that lock in the circumstances that precede their downfall. And this sets up everything for the next act where CXMT has everything it needs to establish itself on the market with buyers that would perhaps would not have considered it in other circumstances.

      1. superxpro12 · 1790864592 · focus · HN ↗

         [dead]

         1. lotsofpulp · 1790865171 · focus · HN ↗

            So if capitalism resulted in higher prices that is causing consternation among small-scale buyers, what -ism is responsible for the investment in factories that increased supply of components that resulted in lower priced electronics for the past few decades?

            Was that also capital looking for returns?

            1. Covzire · 1790865746 · focus · HN ↗

               Don't take the reddit bait

               1. shimman · 1790874050 · focus · HN ↗

                  Why is it bait? It's literally making the world worse were the gains only benefit an extremely small minority of people at the expense of everyone else.
            2. dv_dt · 1790909983 · focus · HN ↗

               The samples from recent history seem to say that well regulated competitve markets are beneficial but ironically that socialism provides better competitive markets then capitalism.

               I would not cheer the AI tulip craze effect on memory as a benefit of capitalism as it has several obvious unchecked violations of well regulated markets.

         2. [deleted] · 1790876676 · focus · HN ↗

            [deleted]

   4. adrian_b · 1790865191 · focus · HN ↗

      CXMT has entered the market, but for now they cannot increase their production fast enough to influence significantly the global prices, due to the US "sanctions", which prevent them to buy modern fabrication equipment.

      So they must use older equipment, which has low productivity for state-of-the-art memories. Because of the "sanctions" there are now Chinese companies that have progressed significantly in semiconductor manufacturing equipment, but the effect of this will also take some more time to manifest.

      Nonetheless, if the 3 big memory producers will not be able to increase the availability of memory until 2028, then until then CXMT will grab with certainty a major part of the market (they have already grown quickly until 10% of the market, from a negligible percent previously).

      1. Danox · 1790879209 · focus · HN ↗

         The rest of the world won’t care. They will use whatever memory they can get, and if the Chinese are willing to supply it over the next 5 to 10 years, they end up on top…
   5. nashashmi · 1790875989 · focus · HN ↗

      I thought your price for 32g was you getting ripped off. Holy crap. The price is super high now. Now I am lamenting missing out on getting 128GB ram when it was $700, thinking it was too high. It is outrageously expensive now.
   6. genpfault · 1790876917 · focus · HN ↗

      > Just this week i've paid ~$1k USD for 2x32G DDR5 ECC, insane.

      <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;pcpartpicker.com&#x2F;trends&#x2F;price&#x2F;memory&#x2F;#ram.ddr5.5600.2x32768" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;pcpartpicker.com&#x2F;trends&#x2F;price&#x2F;memory&#x2F;#ram.ddr5.5600....

   7. Danox · 1790879134 · focus · HN ↗

      They will end up in five years being the dominant memory maker in the world.

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