Thread

1. karlkloss · 1790854478 · focus · HN ↗

   We just buried an ASIC design that was nearly finished. Reason: There was a deviation that would've needed a mask change, but because of AI chip demand, the manufacturer wanted so much money for it, that we said screw it.

   So we now have AI powered chip design tools that make chip design cheaper, but because of AI, chip manufacturing has become so expensive, that we can't afford it anymore.

   Nice.

   1. teitoklien · 1790855414 · focus · HN ↗

      AI didn’t make chip manufacturing more expensive

      Manufacturers choosing not to scale with demand or not being able to scale with demand

      Is what constrained the supply.

      Hopefully will be fixed within a decade , then it’s cool new stuff all the way.

      1. mtrovo · 1790861115 · focus · HN ↗

         > Manufacturers choosing not to scale with demand or not being able to scale with demand

         In a vacuum, that would make sense.

         But looking at how the industry works, the number of defunct companies, and how the whole industry got concentrated on the conservative companies, you start to understand that the reason they still exist is mainly because they don't ride fad waves.

         It's not like chip manufacturing is a spot instance on AWS that you spin up and down when needed; these are multi-year, multi-billion dollar investments that require long-term demand studies. The AI approach of requesting a whole fab of demand for the next 5 years with a letter from Jason Hwang that says "trust it, bro" does not bring as much confidence as it appears.

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