Thread

1. petcat · 1790821195 · focus · HN ↗

   You want to see what's really bad, a train wreck in slow motion, just look at what France is doing.

   They've been subject to EU Excessive Deficit Procedures for multiple years, must bring deficit-to-GDP ratio from ~5.8% down to 3% within 3 years despite virtually no GDP growth and complete political and societal paralysis about reducing any public benefit or welfare whatsoever.

   ECB will most likely get involved after 2029 to start austerity measures. You can predict how that will go over with the French public especially if Le Pen takes the presidency, which looks likely.

   Very tough times ahead and the EU is facing a critical point about its future.

   1. zmmmmm · 1790821670 · focus · HN ↗

      Everyone thinks they can grow their way out of deficits, but it's always a pipe dream. It results in a growth obsessed economic plan that then causes all kinds of other stresses (such as being petrified of cutting immigration, for example). So much of this is all happening in lieu of politicians just being willing to have honest conversations with voters and take a risk of blowback. But I think people are over it and will value authenticity these days enough that it's a false economy. Just tell people the truth.

      1. Gigachad · 1790822043 · focus · HN ↗

         We live in a sick society where billionaires can buy fleets of mega yachts and space ships but governments can't afford to keep functioning.

         We have spent decades selling these billionaires government debt instead of just taxing them correctly.

         1. slashdev · 1790874198 · focus · HN ↗

            You’ve misdiagnosed the problem. Taxing billionaires more is worthwhile, but it’s not causing the deficits and won’t fix them.

            1. bryanlarsen · 1790884456 · focus · HN ↗

               There are two major tax loopholes. Fixing them both would fix the deficit.

               - billionaires. This isn't an easy fix, it would require a wealth tax or similar.

               - the rest of the 1%. They are collectively far more wealthy than the billionaires, and the fix is actually quite simple: close the corporate pass-through tax loophole. Most of them are wealthy "small" business owners. The fix is simple, but difficult politically. There are a lot of people taking advantage of this loop hole, and they're quite influential and connected and.

               1. slashdev · 1790984958 · focus · HN ↗

                  Those things may be worthwhile, I’m not smart enough to know. But you can’t fix the deficit without also cutting entitlements.

                  1. bryanlarsen · 1790995585 · focus · HN ↗

                     It is possible to fix the deficit solely by raising taxes.

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