Thread

1. missedthecue · 1790820728 · focus · HN ↗

   In 2026, entitlement spending + interest expense will be over 100% of federal tax revenue.

   That's before the military, foreign aid, and everything that starts with "Department of"

   1. margalabargala · 1790821186 · focus · HN ↗

      Not sure why you're getting downvoted. I thought you were wrong, looked it up, and you're correct.

      In 2025, federal gov revenues (total, not just tax) were $5.26T: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;fiscaldata.treasury.gov&#x2F;americas-finance-guide&#x2F;government-revenue&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;fiscaldata.treasury.gov&#x2F;americas-finance-guide&#x2F;gover...

      In 2026, entitlements plus interest is projected to cost $5.45T: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;fiscaldata.treasury.gov&#x2F;americas-finance-guide&#x2F;federal-spending&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;fiscaldata.treasury.gov&#x2F;americas-finance-guide&#x2F;feder...

      1. JauntTrooper · 1790824298 · focus · HN ↗

         We would have to raise federal taxes by an average of at least 39% per household and on businesses =just= to balance the deficit.

         The reason the US is a comparably &quot;low tax&quot; country is because we&#x27;re borrowing the difference.

         What worries me the most is that this is at a high point in our economic cycle, when tax collection is arguably the highest. The deficit and debt will expand significantly in the next recession.

         1. digitaltrees · 1790825642 · focus · HN ↗

            This is the best time to raise taxes specially because the business cycle allows it. Guess what would help reduce inflation...raising taxes.

            1. ethbr1 · 1790828525 · focus · HN ↗

               The modern US is a great example that maybe you should have tax and fiscal policy somewhat removed from democratic hands.

               I.e. have a Fed-like entity that gives Congress a max in spending for the current tax policy, and Congress is required by law to stay below that number

               Fixing US debt has always been politically unpopular, and it always will be.

               1. HDThoreaun · 1790879803 · focus · HN ↗

                  Putting fiscal policy in technocrats hands seems like a bad idea to me. Most technocrats are completely divorced from the experience of average people. Since their incentives dont align they would end up implementing bad policy thinking it was good. Tax policy could certainly work though. Most tax law is written by technocrats today, they just need a politician to champion it after its written for it to become a law.

                  1. ethbr1 · 1790895867 · focus · HN ↗

                     Imho, the way to do it is to allow the unelected technocrat body to set the general parameters (e.g. max available spending for current tax policy) while leaving the specific params (e.g. budget items) to Congress.

                     Technocrat bodies seem to do okay with setting scientifically-supported, non-specific directions, that can then be decomposed into specific directions by people better connected to constituents.

                     1. imightbebatman · 1790936687 · focus · HN ↗

                        This couldn&#x27;t ever work. In a crisis like 2007 the US rapidly going into deficit spending is the only thing that kept the financial system running. Have a hard cap during the next crisis and the Great Depression will start having numbers beside it. Economics is a soft science and politics isn&#x27;t a science at all.

                        1. ethbr1 · 1790941879 · focus · HN ↗

                           Any economist on such a body would have seen that the post-Bear Stearns reaction in 2008 merited exceptions to fiscal policy.

                           Such a body presumably would also realize that deficit spending on an average non-crisis Tuesday should be much more tightly reigned in.

                           I chose the Fed as an example because, whether they&#x27;re correct or not, they absolutely pivot around exceptions.

                           1. imightbebatman · 1790944893 · focus · HN ↗

                              This is precisely my point. Who decides what is and is not a crisis. Germany tried a version of what you&#x27;re advocating for and recently realized it was unsustainable, and declared a crisis so they could up defense spending.

                              Trump has declared crisis events no less than 20 times to justify his insane policy decisions.

                              We&#x27;re just playing pretend games now.

                              1. ethbr1 · 1791076041 · focus · HN ↗

                                 The entire point of the Fed et al. is to remove the ability to decide what is and isn&#x27;t exceptional from those who have political stakes in declaring everything exceptional.

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