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10-year Treasury yield climbs above 5.3% to a level not seen in 24 years

122 points · 193 comments · kaycebasques

  1. missedthecue · · focus · HN ↗
    In 2026, entitlement spending + interest expense will be over 100% of federal tax revenue.

    That's before the military, foreign aid, and everything that starts with "Department of"

    1. margalabargala · · focus · HN ↗
      Not sure why you're getting downvoted. I thought you were wrong, looked it up, and you're correct.

      In 2025, federal gov revenues (total, not just tax) were $5.26T: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;fiscaldata.treasury.gov&#x2F;americas-finance-guide&#x2F;government-revenue&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;fiscaldata.treasury.gov&#x2F;americas-finance-guide&#x2F;gover...

      In 2026, entitlements plus interest is projected to cost $5.45T: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;fiscaldata.treasury.gov&#x2F;americas-finance-guide&#x2F;federal-spending&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;fiscaldata.treasury.gov&#x2F;americas-finance-guide&#x2F;feder...

      1. JauntTrooper · · focus · HN ↗
        We would have to raise federal taxes by an average of at least 39% per household and on businesses =just= to balance the deficit.

        The reason the US is a comparably &quot;low tax&quot; country is because we&#x27;re borrowing the difference.

        What worries me the most is that this is at a high point in our economic cycle, when tax collection is arguably the highest. The deficit and debt will expand significantly in the next recession.

        1. digitaltrees · · focus · HN ↗
          This is the best time to raise taxes specially because the business cycle allows it. Guess what would help reduce inflation...raising taxes.
          1. ethbr1 · · focus · HN ↗
            The modern US is a great example that maybe you should have tax and fiscal policy somewhat removed from democratic hands.

            I.e. have a Fed-like entity that gives Congress a max in spending for the current tax policy, and Congress is required by law to stay below that number

            Fixing US debt has always been politically unpopular, and it always will be.

            1. HDThoreaun · · focus · HN ↗
              Putting fiscal policy in technocrats hands seems like a bad idea to me. Most technocrats are completely divorced from the experience of average people. Since their incentives dont align they would end up implementing bad policy thinking it was good. Tax policy could certainly work though. Most tax law is written by technocrats today, they just need a politician to champion it after its written for it to become a law.
              1. [deleted] · · focus · HN ↗

                [deleted]

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