Thread

10-year Treasury yield climbs above 5.3% to a level not seen in 24 years

122 points · 193 comments · kaycebasques

missedthecue · 1790820728 · focus · HN ↗
In 2026, entitlement spending + interest expense will be over 100% of federal tax revenue.
That's before the military, foreign aid, and everything that starts with "Department of"
1. toomuchtodo · 1790820989 · focus · HN ↗
  Yeah, cut the $1T/year in defense spending and raise taxes to pay down the debt (to cut $1T/year in interest expenses) and balance the budget. Entitlements remain because workers are entitled to those benefits they worked for. The same workers the wealthiest need to suck $5T+ a year of profit out of the economy.
  We used to have 94% top tax bracket rate at one point, and higher tax rates in general. We’ll find the will to raise taxes as soon as the bond market compels the spineless in Congress to find the will (as the cost of debt continues to rise into the future), because you cannot deceive the bond market.
  <a href="https://taxfoundation.org/data/all/federal/historical-income-tax-rates-brackets/" rel="nofollow">https://taxfoundation.org/data/all/federal/historical-income...
  <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/09/27/rates-borrowing-yields-fiscal" rel="nofollow">https://www.axios.com/2026/09/27/rates-borrowing-yields-fisc...
  - In projections that the Congressional Budget Office produced last February, net interest costs are already at $1 trillion this year and on track to reach $2 trillion by 2035, meaning that much of federal spending is needed just to service old bills.
  - But those projections assumed 10-year Treasury yields were in the ballpark of 4.3%. They're now nearly a full percentage point higher than that.
  - In startling numbers that CBO released this week, in a scenario in which interest rates were 1 percentage point higher than its baseline, debt held by the public would grow to 222% of GDP in 2056, 47 percentage points higher than the baseline.
  <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/publication/62758" rel="nofollow">https://www.cbo.gov/publication/62758
  1. kccqzy · 1790823465 · focus · HN ↗
    I have seen no evidence that Congress cares about what the bond market thinks. In what scenario do you think the bond market can compel Congress?
    toomuchtodo · 1790823892 · focus · HN ↗
    <a href="https://x.com/Aviation_Intel/status/2105415209284464925" rel="nofollow">https://x.com/Aviation_Intel/status/2105415209284464925
    > Bond market is in revolt about the national debt and I hear crickets from Washington. You think this would be a crisis. Amazing really.
    Some combination of the bond market rejecting Treasuries for other similar investments while also pushing up other debt costs causing excessive failures in interest rate sensitive parts of the economy. Hard to predict when, but it’ll look strikingly familiar to the 2008 GFC I think, the day Bear Stearns collapsed. An event will occur, and there will be a cascading loss of confidence in the bond market. Not a great time when diesel fuel is also at record high prices and will be for at least the next year.
    toomuchtodo · 1790831342 · focus · HN ↗
    Global bond sell-off deepens as Asian yields jump - <a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49917899">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49917899 - September 2026
    toomuchtodo · 1790893615 · focus · HN ↗
    How a Global Debt Crisis Starts - <a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49927749">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49927749 - October 2026

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