Thread

1. petcat · 1790821195 · focus · HN ↗

   You want to see what's really bad, a train wreck in slow motion, just look at what France is doing.

   They've been subject to EU Excessive Deficit Procedures for multiple years, must bring deficit-to-GDP ratio from ~5.8% down to 3% within 3 years despite virtually no GDP growth and complete political and societal paralysis about reducing any public benefit or welfare whatsoever.

   ECB will most likely get involved after 2029 to start austerity measures. You can predict how that will go over with the French public especially if Le Pen takes the presidency, which looks likely.

   Very tough times ahead and the EU is facing a critical point about its future.

   1. JumpCrisscross · 1790823272 · focus · HN ↗

      > must bring deficit-to-GDP ratio from ~5.8% down to 3% within 3 years

      Or what? (Seriously.)

      Greece was forced to the table because the market wouldn’t lend to it. So long as France has lenders, why does this rule matter?

      1. disgruntledphd2 · 1790866345 · focus · HN ↗

         > Greece was forced to the table because the market wouldn’t lend to it.

         Really, because the ECB wouldn't support it. Lots of EU economies (at the time) had great difficulties accessing the markets.

         1. JumpCrisscross · 1790875636 · focus · HN ↗

            > because the ECB wouldn't support it

            Why is this relevant? Athens was bailed out by other European countries and by the IMF. That’s why it had no leverage. France is not in a similar position, partly because its population is also a huge investor itself.

            1. disgruntledphd2 · 1790943008 · focus · HN ↗

               > Why is this relevant?

               Because it demonstrates that this is a political process, not a technocratic one.

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