Thread

1. esalman · 1790825851 · focus · HN ↗

   Different factors have been discussed in the comments, like tax cuts, military spending, social security etc.

   But the yields are going up simply because investors do not want to buy at lower interest anymore. It indicates that investors view the bond as riskier than before. A real fear is materializing that US will default on it's debt. Sure, the fed can always print money to bail them out, but the inflation is on track to cost the Republicans in the midterms.

   There are a combination of factors which is causing this fear- those are radical changes in immigration, trade and military policies. The stability of the bond market is built on the trust that US will act rationally when it comes to skilled immigration, free trade and avoiding direct military conflict. Clearly it's no longer the case.

   US population view themselves as immune to fallouts from global events. But we're starting to see that when you breaki promises left and right, people lose trust, and you pay the price, even when you're a superpower.

   My money is on 8% yield by the end of Q1 '27.

   1. digitaltrees · 1790826367 · focus · HN ↗

      But why don't they want to buy treasury bills. Could it be because they see the US decoupling from the global trading network and predict we will be poorer? Or we are losing the reserve currency status? Or we don't have the political discipline to run a responsible budget and will hit a fiscal crisis. Who cares if you earn 8% on your money if we don't have market access around the world for our goods and services and we get less products because we erect barriers that mean less goods enter our market. We will feel as poor as we will become.

      Steady march towards Argentina

Unofficial Hacker News client; not affiliated with Y Combinator.