Thread

1. petcat · 1790821195 · focus · HN ↗

   You want to see what's really bad, a train wreck in slow motion, just look at what France is doing.

   They've been subject to EU Excessive Deficit Procedures for multiple years, must bring deficit-to-GDP ratio from ~5.8% down to 3% within 3 years despite virtually no GDP growth and complete political and societal paralysis about reducing any public benefit or welfare whatsoever.

   ECB will most likely get involved after 2029 to start austerity measures. You can predict how that will go over with the French public especially if Le Pen takes the presidency, which looks likely.

   Very tough times ahead and the EU is facing a critical point about its future.

   1. zmmmmm · 1790821670 · focus · HN ↗

      Everyone thinks they can grow their way out of deficits, but it's always a pipe dream. It results in a growth obsessed economic plan that then causes all kinds of other stresses (such as being petrified of cutting immigration, for example). So much of this is all happening in lieu of politicians just being willing to have honest conversations with voters and take a risk of blowback. But I think people are over it and will value authenticity these days enough that it's a false economy. Just tell people the truth.

      1. mhh__ · 1790822515 · focus · HN ↗

         You absolutely can grow your way out of a deficit - France is maybe the most regulated liberal economy in the world? It's designed not to grow

         If you can keep energy costs down and get out of the way there will be growth. It's a thing that happens when people do business and make new things.

         1. Incipient · 1790823500 · focus · HN ↗

            There is growing without regard to the lower 95% (china, India, USA) which is great on paper, but arguably not great for the population. I'd say the EU, Australia, and a few other countries have done it significantly better - it's just a significantly harder approach to balance.

            Edit: and probably not as effective, which risks being overtaken by others, I suppose.

            1. tokioyoyo · 1790825917 · focus · HN ↗

               I hate to be a China apologist, but I’m not sure why you included them in that list. Bottom 95% is living in conditions unimaginable to a generation ago. Of course they have humongous problems, but in general, they have lifted everyone up by ignoring views of the rest.
            2. mhh__ · 1790850286 · focus · HN ↗

               The amount of growth the "95%" have seen in china is huge!

               Also American peasants / lower tier white collar workers are usually richer than fairly well off Europeans... You cannot even begin to comprehend how much wealthier the US is in some ways - and remember how totally dysfunctional the US economy is in many limits i.e. if Europe could just be as _bad_ as the US it would grow much faster.

               1. bryanlarsen · 1790858033 · focus · HN ↗

                  A poor American might be richer on paper than a European, but on surveys the poor American feels worse off. And they're not wrong: free medical care, the social safety net and less inequality are massive benefits that don't show up on the balance sheet.

                  1. sharts · 1790861688 · focus · HN ↗

                     fax. this always gets left out of discussions.

                     1. mhh__ · 1790883378 · focus · HN ↗

                        Yes apart from showing up in almost literally every "umm , we don't do THAT in Germany" back and forth on this very question

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