Thread

1. petcat · 1790821195 · focus · HN ↗

   You want to see what's really bad, a train wreck in slow motion, just look at what France is doing.

   They've been subject to EU Excessive Deficit Procedures for multiple years, must bring deficit-to-GDP ratio from ~5.8% down to 3% within 3 years despite virtually no GDP growth and complete political and societal paralysis about reducing any public benefit or welfare whatsoever.

   ECB will most likely get involved after 2029 to start austerity measures. You can predict how that will go over with the French public especially if Le Pen takes the presidency, which looks likely.

   Very tough times ahead and the EU is facing a critical point about its future.

   1. zmmmmm · 1790821670 · focus · HN ↗

      Everyone thinks they can grow their way out of deficits, but it's always a pipe dream. It results in a growth obsessed economic plan that then causes all kinds of other stresses (such as being petrified of cutting immigration, for example). So much of this is all happening in lieu of politicians just being willing to have honest conversations with voters and take a risk of blowback. But I think people are over it and will value authenticity these days enough that it's a false economy. Just tell people the truth.

      1. dhfirkf · 1790822411 · focus · HN ↗

         If your deficit funds corporate welfare or war rather than state asset building (infrastructure) that has positive ROI through externalities ofc it’s a mess. But that’s not all deficits

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