‹ BackHN Continuity

Thread

The AI Race Just Got Awkward

412 points · 463 comments · allisdust

  1. eggbrain · · focus · HN ↗
    Performance optimizations don't just help the western labs, they also help with running more powerful/useful LLMs locally.

    If local LLMs get "good" enough, people will soon paying for subscriptions to ChatGPT and Claude, which hurts their revenue.

    1. londons_explore · · focus · HN ↗
      For nearly all tasks, I want the fastest and smartest AI model.

      It is vanishingly rare I ask an older model to do any task. Newer bigger and smarter models will just do the task better.

      Therefore, I believe we are nowhere near 'good enough'.

      I never drive my steam engine to work these days. It isn't good enough.

      1. danielmarkbruce · · focus · HN ↗
        I find this too. In fact, recently I've been pushing more and more to the latest and greatest model every time there is an update. It just saves me so much headache.
      2. NoDodgeQuestion · · focus · HN ↗
        I drive my 2018 car to work these days. It is good enough.
      3. eggbrain · · focus · HN ↗
        Right now you are right -- even if I ran my local LLM all day, the quality is not nearly as great, and it runs slowly -- so I use the tier one AI subscription services as they are faster and smarter. But that might only be true for a limited amount of time, and a limited number of circumstances.

        To borrow your steam engine analogy, if local LLMs get as good as a Toyota Prius, even if OpenAI / Anthropic offer Ferraris, most people will be happy with their Prius as their daily driver.

        Similarly, if the big labs start raising prices or cutting usage, you won't be able to use it as much as you want -- whereas a local LLM will run all day every day without costing you any extra money.

        So right now you are right, but who knows how long that will last.

      4. gretch · · focus · HN ↗
        > For nearly all tasks, I want the fastest and smartest AI model.

        This is not nearly true for everyone else in the world.

        For example, think about the world in ~2021 pre-LLM. Would anyone say the sentence "I only want the fastest and smartest humans working on my project"?

        No of course not. Most people don't want to pay $10 million dollar salary to the best programmers in the world. They prefer to pay $200k salary to a median programmer and that's good enough for their ecommerce website.

        1. tyre · · focus · HN ↗
          I mean people said this all the time, but wouldn’t pay for it (as you said), couldn’t recruit for it, and definitely couldn’t retain them.

          But so many teams said they wanted to Raise the Bar to infinity and hire a World Class Team.

      5. settsu · · focus · HN ↗
        Genuine ELI5 question: in this metaphor, which "old" models are steam engines at this point? Which are Model Ts, etc.
      6. monkpit · · focus · HN ↗
        I think a scooter or a bus is a more apt comparison than a steam engine. The scooter and bus can both get the job done with some acceptable trade-offs, depending on your circumstances and what you’re willing to accept.

        However, there are many use cases where they aren’t the right tool for the job.

      7. schmookeeg · · focus · HN ↗
        This will change when out of control billing gets noticed. Then us devs will, I presume, get token rations.

        I can see my new Thursday afternoon "oh chit" moment being that I didn't complete my weekly task because i torched all of those tokens M-W doing task/ticket grooming using the hot hot model instead of the dodo model with jira mcp connector :D

Open on Hacker News to reply ↗

Unofficial Hacker News client; not affiliated with Y Combinator.