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September 2026: The world today, as seen by one Polish guy

522 points · 391 comments · marjancek

  1. jakozaur · · focus · HN ↗
    I&#x27;m Polish, but this is such a pessimistic, overdramatic take. The visualisations are impressive, but you&#x27;re living in Poland&#x27;s golden age. See this Hacker News story with 1,000+ upvotes: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=48062117">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=48062117

    The war in Ukraine is a tragedy, but it has proved that Russia is weak. The price shock will speed up the transition to renewables, and Iran is losing its grip on Hormuz. So many of the other issues are solvable.

    It&#x27;s easy to be a pessimist, but there&#x27;s a bright future ahead of us.

    1. tejohnso · · focus · HN ↗
      &gt; it has proved that Russia is weak.

      How? Russia is successfully fighting the entirety of NATO on a front that it is continually pushing further west, with about 20% of Ukraine now lost. If anything NATO and the promise of US security is what has been shown to be weak. And I don&#x27;t think the idea of US&#x2F;Western superiority is ever going to come back to what it was given what has happened in the Ukraine and Iran theaters in recent past.

      1. Aozora7 · · focus · HN ↗
        Russia is on equal footing with a country third of its size that is supported by a small fraction of NATO&#x27;s GDP. You can barely tell the difference between a territorial control map from 2023 and 2026. Neither side is capable of achieving its goals through military action.

        Ukraine us unlikely to get back most of the territory it lost in 2022, but Russia is also unlikely to even finish capturing the remaining parts of the Donetsk oblast, let alone the rest of Ukraine. It&#x27;s taking Russia months&#x2F;years to capture settlements with just thousands of prewar population. Donetsk oblast still has a heavily fortified urban area with a prewar population of 500k under Ukrainian control.

        1. sam_lowry_ · · focus · HN ↗
          &gt; third of its size

          Russia is about 28 times larger than Ukraine and 10x GDP.

          1. ambicapter · · focus · HN ↗
            Population-wise, Russia is about 140M+, Ukraine is about ~40M.
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