Thread

September 2026: The world today, as seen by one Polish guy

522 points · 391 comments · marjancek

jakozaur · 1790761035 · focus · HN ↗
I'm Polish, but this is such a pessimistic, overdramatic take. The visualisations are impressive, but you're living in Poland's golden age. See this Hacker News story with 1,000+ upvotes: <a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48062117">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48062117
The war in Ukraine is a tragedy, but it has proved that Russia is weak. The price shock will speed up the transition to renewables, and Iran is losing its grip on Hormuz. So many of the other issues are solvable.
It's easy to be a pessimist, but there's a bright future ahead of us.
1. traceroute66 · 1790767705 · focus · HN ↗
  > and Iran is losing its grip on Hormuz
  Remember this is a war that Iran has spent 40 years planning for.
  Netanyahu has been doing the same "two weeks away" stand-up comedy since 1992.
  Netanyahu asked every single US president. They all took advice and then went back with a polite "thanks, but no thanks".
  You don't need to have access to super-secret intel to know going into this frivolous war was a very stupid idea. You just need to look at a standard map and use your brain.
  Finally Mr Netanyahu found a stupid enough US president.
  And the problem with the current US president is he won't accept a loss.
  He is not the sort of person willing to accept he has bitten off more than he can chew.
  Nor is he the sort of person who is willing to sit down and have a proper negotiated discussion. Infact he's the very person who just tore up the JPCOA seemingly just because he doesn't like Obama.
  Nor is he the sort of person willing to learn from Iraq or Afghanistan.
  So we have a stalemate. And a US president who doesn't believe in diplomacy, old-school politics or anything else.
  And this stalemate is not one that is going to be resolved with more military firepower. Again, just look at the map....
  1. timnetworks · 1790772545 · focus · HN ↗
    [dead]
    secretsatan · 1790773140 · focus · HN ↗
    How do you propose to end the war without negotiations?
    drybjed · 1790774298 · focus · HN ↗
    Make the oil less relevant to the point that 1/5th of it not being present doesn't affect the rest of the world. We are not there yet, but when we get there, there will be no reason to hold the Strait of Hormuz. Of course the impact on the Gulf states will be enormous, economic or otherwise, so it's hard to say if they will let this be.
    traceroute66 · 1790774713 · focus · HN ↗
    > there will be no reason to hold the Strait of Hormuz
    Hormuz was yesterday's problem.
    Today's problem which was entirely predictable to anybody with a map and half a brain is Bab El Mendab now being heavily disrupted by the Houthis etc.
    It was always a case of when, not if.
    Which now means the old ~20 day alternative-route transits via Bab are now ~50 days becuase you have to go via Suez and Cape of Good Hope.
    This is exactly why all the other US presidents said no. It was a Pandora's box that was not worth the risk poking with a sharp stick.
    HappyPanacea · 1790775721 · focus · HN ↗
    What does the Hormuz have to do with Bab El Mendab? The Houthi attacked red sea routes before any "Pandora's box" was opened.
    orwin · 1790778271 · focus · HN ↗
    Houthis used to only attack Israeli ships, because of their truce with the Saudis. Now that their diplomats got bombed at an airport, they are attacking Saudi ships, including tankers, too.
    Against GP point though: the Houthis probably won't attack non-saudi, non-israeli vessels anytime soon, so it shouldn't change the route so much.
    traceroute66 · 1790779654 · focus · HN ↗
    > Against GP point though...
    Fair point. But one word .... Insurance.
    HappyPanacea · 1790780739 · focus · HN ↗
    > Houthis used to only attack Israeli ships
    Houthi attacked non-Israeli ships as well. So it does change the route or at least make it riskier and before opening the "pandora's box".
    tw04 · 1790778417 · focus · HN ↗
    So are we getting there by exhausting the strategic reserve, by killing renewable projects, or by eliminating fuel efficiency standards?
    tw04 · 1790773315 · focus · HN ↗
    I’m hoping they don’t grow up in one the US shapes if it continues to be run by a dictator loving sexual predator who thinks corruption isn’t just ok, but a mandatory part of government.
    It’s also rich saying that the US doesn’t negotiate with terrorists while watching Trump verbally fellate Putin at every given opportunity.
    timnetworks · 1790827690 · focus · HN ↗
    "Speak softly and carry a big stick; you will go far." Speak like a tiktok echo chamber, you may get stuck believing it yourself.
    arthur-st · 1790773592 · focus · HN ↗
    The US very much has been trying to get Ukraine to surrender to Russia since Trump was elected. Quite nothing would seemingly please Trump more than Ukrainians rolling over and clearing the way to a fat kickback from Russia.
    jonnybgood · 1790776135 · focus · HN ↗
    Trump recently signed a Russian sanctions bill and the State Department just cleared a $2.7 billion military sale to Ukraine. So, I don't know how you've arrived at your conclusions.
    jodrellblank · 1790777150 · focus · HN ↗
    Are you kidding?
    2025 November: "Trump’s peace plan is a demand for Ukraine’s surrender What makes this plan different from all the others?"[1]
    2025 October: "Donald Trump Wants Ukraine to Surrender to Putin"[2]
    2025 September: "Ukraine's refusal to give up territory to Russia stalls peace deal, Trump envoy says"[3]
    2025 Feb: "Trump Gives Europe 3 Weeks to Accept Ukraine’s ‘Surrender,’ Says European Lawmaker"[4]
    2025 January: "Trump says Ukraine should have surrendered to Russia and blames Zelensky for war"[5]
    2024 September: "Harris meets Zelensky and slams Trump's 'surrender policy' for Ukraine"[6]
    1. <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/469993/trump-ukraine-peace-plan-zelenskyy" rel="nofollow">https://www.vox.com/politics/469993/trump-ukraine-peace-plan...
    2. <a href="https://nationalsecurityjournal.org/donald-trump-wants-ukraine-to-surrender-to-putin/" rel="nofollow">https://nationalsecurityjournal.org/donald-trump-wants-ukrai...
    3. <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/news/us/articles/ukraines-refusal-territory-russia-stalls-100132986.html" rel="nofollow">https://www.yahoo.com/news/us/articles/ukraines-refusal-terr...
    4. <a href="https://www.kyivpost.com/post/47574" rel="nofollow">https://www.kyivpost.com/post/47574
    5. <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-putin-zelensky-ukraine-russia-sean-hannity-b2685565.html" rel="nofollow">https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politic...
    6. <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20240927-harris-meets-zelensky-and-slams-trump-s-surrender-policy-for-ukraine" rel="nofollow">https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20240927-harris-meets-z...
    jonnybgood · 1790778426 · focus · HN ↗
    Yep, he says a lot of stupid stuff, but I care more about the actual actions that are being done. Despite what Trump says, the US has not stopped supporting Ukraine.
    polotics · 1790783625 · focus · HN ↗
    Have you noticed the small detail about the application of the sanctions bill that has been signed? Please tell us when you see something out of this bill, and the effect it has on whom.
    timnetworks · 1790827018 · focus · HN ↗
    War is big business. The biggest. My family, in Ukraine, would laugh at your basic level of understanding of the situation on the ground. It doesn't look like we're rolling over any time soon though, so there's that.
    [deleted] · 1790774074 · focus · HN ↗
    [deleted]
    smcg · 1790774406 · focus · HN ↗
    The US has materially supported terrorist groups in the Middle East and South America.
    swat535 · 1790774786 · focus · HN ↗
    I'm in Iranian and I have relatives in Iraq.
    United States decided that our children shouldn't have the right to grow up in this world.
    So that, I say, I would rather not take part in any world that United States shapes.
    HappyPanacea · 1790775595 · focus · HN ↗
    > United States decided that our children shouldn't have the right to grow up in this world.
    What makes you believe this great exaggeration? If it was true USA would have nuked Iran and Iraq to kingdom come ages ago.
    tw04 · 1790778509 · focus · HN ↗
    I’m guessing the indiscriminate bombings of schools in Iran and Palestine are probably playing a role in his opinion.
    HappyPanacea · 1790781352 · focus · HN ↗
    Sorry, A single mistaken strike isn't indiscriminate bombings of schools.
    bigyabai · 1790789912 · focus · HN ↗
    Donald Trump has very clearly and explicitly threatened to attack civilian infrastructure in Iran: <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-iran-stone-age-bombing-b2950890.html" rel="nofollow">https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politic...
    Even the most charitable interpretation of this comment suggests that Trump is okay letting Iranians grow up in a country without electricity, clean water and denied any humanitarian aid. You'll note that many defense commentators called this a threat to commit war crimes, which the US has already supported through it's proxies like the IDF.
    timnetworks · 1790826747 · focus · HN ↗
    "When peace comes we will perhaps in time be able to forgive the Arabs for killing our sons, but it will be harder for us to forgive them for having forced us to kill their sons." - GM
    I'm not a huge fan of the gay parade tbh, but I'm less a fan of countries that enact policies to hang those that would march in it. The world is moving forward, admittedly not everyone is invited. Sad all around.

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