Thread

1. roenxi · 1790756315 · focus · HN ↗

   > Every generation believes it is living through the end of something.

   Many generations are. Last century saw the collapse of the British and Soviet empires - titans by any measure - through mismanagement. Europe as an international power was also broken (compared to how they used to be). I can easily imagine 1900s me fleeing to America in fear of the end times and feeling quite justified in his choices with hindsight. Less obvious where to run to these days as the US not-an-empire looks like it may crumble.

   Most of the people who died didn't get an opportunity to complain, so we live with some serious survivorship bias on how bad things got.

   1. pjc50 · 1790760828 · focus · HN ↗

      I also sometimes think how people don't realize how good they have things; while Poland is no longer a poor country, it would take an absolutely colossal disaster to reduce the average living standard of America to that of Poland. America hasn't even reached the 'terrifying' level of European petrol prices.

      It also depends who you are. A very large fraction of American trans people (not a large absolute number, only a few hundred thousand) have moved from R states to D states recently due to repression, such as Kentucky revoking their driving licenses.

      I do think the best political-economic era of my life was 1997-2001: election of Tony Blair until 9/11, covering the first internet boom. That was the closest to "world peace". That includes the Israel-Palestine peace process and the reconciliation of the post-Soviet states into Europe. If that had worked better, with a democratic Russia, the world would be a very different place today.

      1. klausa · 1790762455 · focus · HN ↗

         I'll bite, even though I really shouldn't.

         How do you define "average living standard", so that it would take a colossal disaster to have US reduced to that of Poland?

         1. logicchains · 1790765575 · focus · HN ↗

            In terms of nominal GDP per capita, the US is around $85k with Poland at $25k, so US GDP would need to fall around 70%, which would be an unprecedented fall, the kind historically only associated with mass bombing or extreme hyperinflation.

            1. ninalanyon · 1790768329 · focus · HN ↗

               GDP is irrelevant when discussing the well being of the ordinary person. A more relevant measure would be median income together with purchasing power parity.

               US median income is just over 19 k international dollars, Poland is just under 9 k. Still a big difference but just over a factor of 2 instead of over 3.5.

               See <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;worldpopulationreview.com&#x2F;country-rankings&#x2F;median-income-by-country" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;worldpopulationreview.com&#x2F;country-rankings&#x2F;median-in...

               1. ericmay · 1790772402 · focus · HN ↗

                  America has not just a lot more people, but a lot more immigrants, refugees, and more.

                  In a more homogenous society, such as Poland’s in comparison to the United States, it also in my observation trends to be easier for wealth distribution to flatten.

                  Maybe the US has more kids per capita too which would also affect that value depending on how it is being measured. Not to say that anything is being hidden there, just something to think about that may make you interpret the data differently or think about it differently.

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