Thread

September 2026: The world today, as seen by one Polish guy

522 points · 391 comments · marjancek

jakozaur · 1790761035 · focus · HN ↗
I'm Polish, but this is such a pessimistic, overdramatic take. The visualisations are impressive, but you're living in Poland's golden age. See this Hacker News story with 1,000+ upvotes: <a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48062117">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48062117
The war in Ukraine is a tragedy, but it has proved that Russia is weak. The price shock will speed up the transition to renewables, and Iran is losing its grip on Hormuz. So many of the other issues are solvable.
It's easy to be a pessimist, but there's a bright future ahead of us.
1. tejohnso · 1790770682 · focus · HN ↗
  > it has proved that Russia is weak.
  How? Russia is successfully fighting the entirety of NATO on a front that it is continually pushing further west, with about 20% of Ukraine now lost. If anything NATO and the promise of US security is what has been shown to be weak. And I don't think the idea of US/Western superiority is ever going to come back to what it was given what has happened in the Ukraine and Iran theaters in recent past.
  1. sobellian · 1790772161 · focus · HN ↗
    I am curious how Russian people feel about this propaganda line that they're fighting NATO. It's obviously nonsense, along the lines of "war is peace." Russia borders NATO and there is no front there. Russia invaded a non-NATO country and immediately bogged down against an army that does not fight according to NATO doctrine. I have to believe this is something the average Russian realizes.
    specproc · 1790773556 · focus · HN ↗
    Not Russian, but spent a lot of time out east.
    Russia is reflexively anti-NATO as NATO is reflexively anti-Russia.
    NATO is an alliance that was created in opposition to the Soviet Union. NATO has absorbed parts of the former Soviet Union.
    Western companies pillaged Russia after the fall of the Soviet Union. Rightly or wrongly, Putin owes a lot of his original popularity to dealing with the aftermath.
    Russia, rightly or wrongly, sees colour revolutions as intelligence operations, and territorial conquest.
    Russia cannot accept NATO forces on its borders.
    NATO is providing decisive material, political, logistical, financial and intelligence support to Ukraine, precisely to bog it down and drain it.
    These are all pretty normal perspectives for most Russians. They're arguably pretty based, and not necessarily a product of internal propaganda campaigns.
    The thing that westerners don't get about Russia, and the reason we're stuck in this Godforsaken conflict, is that we personalise things around Putin. We think that if Putin dies, everything will magically improve.
    The decision to invade was Putin's, but the rationale goes much deeper and will outlast him.
    someonebaggy · 1790775082 · focus · HN ↗
    > Russia cannot accept NATO forces on its borders.
    This is such obvious bullshit. Russia already has NATO on its borders, and is attempting to expand it's borders so they will contact even more of NATO.
    c-smile · 1790783960 · focus · HN ↗
    > will contact even more of NATO
    Geography and Istanbul would be agreement to make Ukraine neutral tells exactly the opposite.
    But "let's just fight" (c) Boris Johnson (GB PM at that time). Yeah, why not?
    mopsi · 1790790277 · focus · HN ↗
    Myth: <a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49078088">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49078088
    tim333 · 1790848499 · focus · HN ↗
    Huh? Geography shows NATO borders Russia in Latvia and Estonia, now also Finland. Ukraine was neutral till 2014 when Russia invaded it. Russia is so full of shit. It's like 1984 war is peace type stuff.
    someonebaggy · 1790853670 · focus · HN ↗
    Their actions show they want to have Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania on their border.
    The excuse is such transparent bullshit it has to be a deliberate litmus test to see who will repeat the bullshit uncritically.
    wiseowise · 1790889159 · focus · HN ↗
    Nonsense. Russia wanted to limit Ukrainian army in addition to neutrality. No sane leader would sign a "peace" like that.
    [deleted] · 1790792123 · focus · HN ↗
    [deleted]
    sam_lowry_ · 1790778466 · focus · HN ↗
    > The decision to invade was Putin's, but the rationale goes much deeper and will outlast him
    Not Russian either but also spent a lot of time out east.
    Putin declared the war as a means of personal survival. The negotiations are possible only if he gets out of the way, and then, it's really important to make a Marshall plan for Russia because indeed lots of reputational damage has to be repaired by the "winners" in the Cold War.
    specproc · 1790804826 · focus · HN ↗
    That Putin has personal investment in this is not under question. I agree, there are things that he won't compromise on.
    Does this mean the war continues till he dies? We could yet wait a long time.
    Say he does fall over tomorrow, there's no guarantee what comes next is any better. Defeat in WWI brought about Nazi Germany. A Marshal Plan would more likely come from China.
    He's had attempts on his life made. Do you think Russia will fall over if that's successful? Look at what's happened with Iran. Would Russia believe he had a heart attack if he had one?
    It would be in everyone's best interests if this war was frozen exactly where it is, now. A continued war in Europe is bad for everyone, and could get much worse.
    sam_lowry_ · 1790847316 · focus · HN ↗
    > Defeat in WWI brought about Nazi Germany
    Defeat of Germany in WWII was followed by Marshall plan exactly to avoid the ressentiment that nourished the Nazis.
    > He's had attempts on his life made
    That's a dubious claim. Nothing that we know for sure. I've seen him hinting at that and at the danger to his family in interviews, but who takes his word for it?
    tim333 · 1790848790 · focus · HN ↗
    Trouble is Putin is not prepared to freeze it where it is now.
    kijashdkujdfhas · 1790785397 · focus · HN ↗
    > NATO is providing decisive material, political, logistical, financial and intelligence support to Ukraine, precisely to bog it down and drain it.
    NATO would not need to provide so much material, political, logistical, financial, and intelligence support to Ukraine if Russia just fucking left Ukraine.
    The drain goes away if they stop invading a sovereign neighbor.
    sobellian · 1790786346 · focus · HN ↗
    I'm not going to say that NATO materiel has had zero effect but I think what Russians (at least those in power) really can't reckon with is that their initial invasion got stopped by Ukrainian AD, artillery, armor, and soldiers operating on the same Cold War stockpiles and doctrine as they did. The single most valuable intervention from NATO was simply alerting Ukraine that Russia was about to invade, allowing the Ukrainians to disperse their units.
    Russia committed to too many (and often poorly chosen) lines of advance and did not have a plan to keep their units adequately supplied and moving on the approach to Kiev. This meant even in the opening month of the invasion, their plan went south almost immediately and you had infamous miles-long traffic jams on the roads leading south. Their SEAD didn't work. Their soldiers were not told ahead of time that they were invading Ukraine. They didn't want to mobilize ahead of time, so they didn't amass enough forces. Against a large country like Ukraine you don't need to invent a NATO bogeyman to understand why the initial offensive failed. Credit to Ukraine, they did not allow a defeatist narrative to take hold and fought.
    wiseowise · 1790889001 · focus · HN ↗
    > Western companies pillaged Russia after the fall of the Soviet Union.
    Western companies, of course. Not oligarchs.
    Please. Must be Western companies that threw orgies, spent hundreds of millions of rubles on parties and buying influence, started bandit wars, and feasted on leftovers of USSR industry.
    yurish · 1790786361 · focus · HN ↗
    > It's obviously nonsense, along the lines of "war is peace." Ukraine is armed in financially supported by NATO countries. Russian propaganda obviously exaggerates this fact. Western obviously propaganda downplays this fact. That's a Russian person's opinion you are looking for.

Open on Hacker News to reply ↗

Unofficial Hacker News client; not affiliated with Y Combinator.