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September 2026: The world today, as seen by one Polish guy

522 points · 391 comments · marjancek

jakozaur · 1790761035 · focus · HN ↗
I'm Polish, but this is such a pessimistic, overdramatic take. The visualisations are impressive, but you're living in Poland's golden age. See this Hacker News story with 1,000+ upvotes: <a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48062117">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48062117
The war in Ukraine is a tragedy, but it has proved that Russia is weak. The price shock will speed up the transition to renewables, and Iran is losing its grip on Hormuz. So many of the other issues are solvable.
It's easy to be a pessimist, but there's a bright future ahead of us.
1. traceroute66 · 1790767705 · focus · HN ↗
  > and Iran is losing its grip on Hormuz
  Remember this is a war that Iran has spent 40 years planning for.
  Netanyahu has been doing the same "two weeks away" stand-up comedy since 1992.
  Netanyahu asked every single US president. They all took advice and then went back with a polite "thanks, but no thanks".
  You don't need to have access to super-secret intel to know going into this frivolous war was a very stupid idea. You just need to look at a standard map and use your brain.
  Finally Mr Netanyahu found a stupid enough US president.
  And the problem with the current US president is he won't accept a loss.
  He is not the sort of person willing to accept he has bitten off more than he can chew.
  Nor is he the sort of person who is willing to sit down and have a proper negotiated discussion. Infact he's the very person who just tore up the JPCOA seemingly just because he doesn't like Obama.
  Nor is he the sort of person willing to learn from Iraq or Afghanistan.
  So we have a stalemate. And a US president who doesn't believe in diplomacy, old-school politics or anything else.
  And this stalemate is not one that is going to be resolved with more military firepower. Again, just look at the map....
  1. TheOtherHobbes · 1790770865 · focus · HN ↗
    Not a stupid idea at all. The US oil corps are making massive profits.
    It's at everyone else's expense, but so is everything else they do.
    traceroute66 · 1790772049 · focus · HN ↗
    > The US oil corps are making massive profits
    Its not my area of expertise by any means, but I would perhaps point out the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve chart[1] which is at its lowest level since 1982.
    Also do not forget the oil and LNG needs to be transported and that is becoming increasingly difficult and expensive.
    It may well be that the artificial party cannot go on forever.
    [1] <a href="https://en.macromicro.me/charts/41674/us-strategic-petroleum-reserve" rel="nofollow">https://en.macromicro.me/charts/41674/us-strategic-petroleum...
    tancop · 1790777310 · focus · HN ↗
    They don't need to go on forever. Just long enough to maximize the share price so oil execs can sell at the top before it all comes down.
    ragebol · 1790777623 · focus · HN ↗
    > but I would perhaps point out the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve chart[1] which is at its lowest level since 1982.
    Might be the case, but that doesn't refute the argument? Maybe an empty reserve is even better for the (US) oil corps, financially.
    digdugdirk · 1790779126 · focus · HN ↗
    The US Petroleum Reserve is governmental, not done by the oil industry. The US government buys and stores oil when prices are low to provide a buffer for volatility in the markets or for things like natural disasters. The reserve being low means that the oil companies are very close to having a market that has no alternative but to pay whatever price is asked for oil.
    To your point about oil and LNG being expensive to transport - that just means oil corps can turn down production at the locations impacted, and jack up the prices for whatever is produced in the locations that aren't. Lower operating costs + higher revenues = profits.
    It really is a perfect storm for massive returns for the major players. As a bonus, it's impacting the Saudi and Russian national players, which are their toughest competition since they don't need to file any quarterly reports. I agree that it can't go on forever, but the oil industry is rolling around in money like Scrooge McDuck in the meantime.
    GolfPopper · 1790780013 · focus · HN ↗
    Sharp price increases will cause demand destruction. That is not good for profits in anything other than the short term.
    bdangubic · 1790788393 · focus · HN ↗
    True if goods are non-essential, false otherwise. It price of water went up 1,000% in my city demand would still be fairly strong (though sure we’d ration as much as we can)
    WarmWash · 1790777144 · focus · HN ↗
    This is probably the worst thing oil corps could ask for, and I can guarantee you with every ounce of my being that they are furious over this.
    It might check the phantom "short term profits" box, but anyone with any modicum of business sense (and the oil boys are no amateurs) see this event as probably the largest nail ever driven into the oil coffin.
    Trump could not have given a bigger gift to the anti-oil crowd, making every human on Earth think "Damn, this shit is getting expensive and unreliable, what alternatives are available?"
    fransje26 · 1790785076 · focus · HN ↗
    > see this event as probably the largest nail ever driven into the oil coffin.
    It will probably go like this:
    war -> fuel costs explode -> economic crisis -> AI bubble burst -> bigger economic crisis -> eventually rebuild on the ruins of what is left and go electric

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