Thread

1. Tade0 · 1790758636 · focus · HN ↗

   I feel like this is overdramatized a bit.

   For instance: it's mentioned that EU gas storage is at 67% and Germany's at 56%.

   What is not mentioned though is that Poland's storage is at 97% because the previous administration, for better or worse, was paranoid enough to invest in a sizeable marine gas terminal and the current one stocked up early.

   Regarding real estate: adjusted for inflation prices peaked 2.5 years ago, interest rates are also much lower than back then. Nobody is buying because all the Ukrainian refugees who were moving to Poland are here already and that's the last bump in population this country will see for the foreseeable future.

   Also there's the threat of war on Polish soil, which affects investor sentiment.

   1. alpineman · 1790760850 · focus · HN ↗

      So it's overdramatised on the gas, but underdramatised on the war?

      1. Tade0 · 1790763298 · focus · HN ↗

         The threat of war is largely in the minds of investors.

         I don't know if Putin is crazy enough to chance it, but I wouldn't put it past him to do so.

         But even then, Russia would need to mobilize hundreds of thousands of troops and that is not something you can pull off in a week, or even a month.

         1. kakacik · 1790766372 · focus · HN ↗

            They are massively increasing their medium sized drone capacities (ie Geran) while improving on those drones too. Faster, harder to detect and shoot down, no GPS/Glonass navigation necessary so jamming won't do much.

            A country that is rained on by 500 drones daily delivering 125KG explosives (so like a proper standard bomb dropped from airplanes) can overwhelm local military defense capacities quickly, leave infrastructure in crumbles (as in no water, electricity, gas, heating, gas stations working and so on) and at least in dictator's mind local population may crumble in weeks. You don't need to put a single foot in the country to reduce critical infra to rubble.

            I can't imagine Polish folks would ever bow to russians after horrible things they repeatedly done to them, but ie in Slovakia it would be a very quick victory even if country wouldn't be ruled by ultra corrupt folks who would just give whole country to russians for some more corruption promises for later.

            If puttin' will try anything in eastern Europe now is the best time. But I would expect more something along Moldova or baltics, Poland is far from russia and any extra force concentration in Kaliningrad would be easy to see.

            1. galangalalgol · 1790770342 · focus · HN ↗

               The baltics have even more vivid memories of soviet life don't they? And nato trip wire troops so any attack would be killing french and uk soldiers (nuclear powers). Trump was talking about taking Greenland by force right up until the trip wire forces arrived. It is an odd job as a soldier to be a hostage I think, but it seems to work. It would be more reliable for Poland to obtain its own nuclear deterrent, along the lines of the buffers vs dependencies argument in the post. There has been talk, but that seems difficult.

Unofficial Hacker News client; not affiliated with Y Combinator.